Matchup analysis
Our model projects Mercer 29, East Tennessee State 25 at Five Star Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Mercer wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
East Tennessee State is 6-2 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.4 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+11.5 per game). Mercer is 6-2 against the 125th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.6 and allowing 17.1 points per game (+13.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Tennessee State by 19 and Mercer by 26 about 80% of the time.
Mercer gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mercer by about 1.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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East Tennessee State vs Mercer: stat comparison
| Stat | East Tennessee State | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.4 | 30.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9 | 17.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.10 | 6.69 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28 | 5.01 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.0 | 266.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.8 | 163.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.6 | 143.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.1 | 184.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.13 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 1.75 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 42.6% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 39.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8% | 12.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 3.29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0 | 64.3 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4% | 46.0% |
| Passing success rate | 45.7% | 36.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.6% | 14.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.7% | 31.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.6% | 29.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 45.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.7% | 53.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Tennessee State schedule · Mercer schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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