2026 schedule
Mercer Bears
2026 season so far
Mercer is 6-2 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.6 and allowing 17.1 points per game (+13.5 per game).
Mercer plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs The Citadel in Week 9. We project Mercer 34, The Citadel 16 — Mercer wins 88% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
East Texas A&M Lions
0-1 · SOS #58
Win 23-15
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 11.1
Total 67.5
DraftKings
MER -22.5
Total 57.5
Final Mercer by 8. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 38 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -22.5 (open Mercer -23.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 60.5) · ML +1100 / -3200 · Mercer 92% no-vig · model vs market -11.4 pts, -15 pct pts (Mercer view)
ESPN Five Star StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - vs
Presbyterian Blue Hose
1-1 · SOS #145
Win 62-3
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 6
Total 57.6
DraftKings
MER -22.5
Total 54.5
Final Mercer by 59. Mercer beat the spread. 65 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -22.5 (open Mercer -21.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.5) · ML +920 / -2100 · Mercer 91% no-vig · model vs market -16.5 pts, -25 pct pts (Mercer view)
ESPN+ Five Star StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Furman Paladins
2-1 · SOS #20
Loss 13-20
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 10.6
Total 53.8
DraftKings
MER -15.5
Total 54.5
Final Furman by 7. Furman beat the spread. 33 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -15.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +406 / -590 · Mercer 81% no-vig · model vs market -4.9 pts, -6 pct pts (Mercer view)
ESPN+ Five Star Stadium - at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
1-2 · SOS #43
Loss 11-44
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Georgia Tech by 31.9
Total 46.1
DraftKings
GT -38.5
Total 58.5
Final Georgia Tech by 33. Mercer beat the spread. 55 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Tech -38.5 · O/U 58 (open 59) · model vs market -6.6 pts (Georgia Tech view)
ACC Network Bobby Dodd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hitNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - at
Abilene Christian Wildcats
1-4 · SOS #6
Win 34-17
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 5.6
Total 55
DraftKings
ACU -3.5
Total 48.5
Final Mercer by 17. Mercer beat the spread. 51 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -3.5 · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML +187 / -239 · Abilene Christian 67% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, -3 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 90°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABI)ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
VMI Keydets
0-6 · SOS #71
Win 54-3
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 26.7
Total 50.9
DraftKings
MER -34.5
Total 48.5
Final Mercer by 51. Mercer beat the spread. 57 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -34.5 (open Mercer -35.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · model vs market +7.8 pts (VMI view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 51°F, Wind 5 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHSP)ESPN+ Foster StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Western Carolina Catamounts
3-4 · SOS #27
Win 17-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 8.7
Total 64.5
DraftKings
MER -7.5
Total 60.5
Final Mercer by 3. Western Carolina beat the spread. 31 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -7.5 (open Mercer -6) · O/U 60.5 (open 57.5) · ML +209 / -269 · Mercer 69% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Mercer view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 79°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBJC)ESPN+ Five Star StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Samford Bulldogs
1-6 · SOS #80
Win 31-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 14.9
Total 47.9
DraftKings
MER -15.5
Total 48.5
Final Mercer by 10. Samford beat the spread. 52 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -15.5 (open Mercer -13.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 51.5) · ML -730 / +476 · Samford 16% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, -0 pct pts (Samford view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 5 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBHM)ESPN+ Seibert StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
The Citadel Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #10
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 34-16 · 88%
Our number
Mercer by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 60°F, Wind 3 mph NE, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Five Star StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Chattanooga Mocs
5-3 · SOS #87
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 24-21 · 57%
Our number
Mercer by 3
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Finley StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - at
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
7-1 · SOS #94
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 26-29 · 42%
Our number
Tennessee Tech by 3
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Tucker StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - vs
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
6-2 · SOS #113
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 29-25 · 59%
Our number
Mercer by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Five Star StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Mercer Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.8
Adj. offense
20.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 30.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 17.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.69 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.01 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 266.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 163.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 143.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 184.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.00 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.8% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.3% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.7% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.29 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.40 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.3 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.12 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.07 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.07 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 46.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 36.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.7% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 24.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 31.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 29.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 45.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 53.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.