Matchup analysis
Our model projects Mercer 34, The Citadel 16 at Five Star Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Mercer wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.1 points and 50.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
The Citadel is 2-6 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.5 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-15.3 per game). Mercer is 6-2 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.6 and allowing 17.1 points per game (+13.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between The Citadel by 4 and Mercer by 41 about 80% of the time.
Mercer gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mercer by about 16. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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The Citadel vs Mercer: stat comparison
| Stat | The Citadel | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.5 | 30.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8 | 17.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.08 | 6.69 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.27 | 5.01 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.8 | 266.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 101.0 | 163.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.8 | 143.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.5 | 184.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 38.5% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.2% | 39.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.13 | 3.29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.01 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 17 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 17 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 64.3 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.5% | 46.0% |
| Passing success rate | 34.5% | 36.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 14.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 24.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.2% | 31.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2% | 29.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.5% | 45.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.1% | 53.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: The Citadel schedule · Mercer schedule · all Week 9 projections
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