Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Tech 39, Mercer 7.1 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Georgia Tech wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.9 points and 46.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Mercer is 2-1, scoring 32.7 and allowing 12.7 points per game (+20 per game). Georgia Tech is 0-2, scoring 18.5 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-11 per game).
Mercer plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Georgia Tech's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Tech by 9 and Georgia Tech by 54 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia Tech by about 29.8. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Mercer 11, Georgia Tech 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.1 points and the total by 8.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercer / Georgia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Tech -38.5 | 59 → 58 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Georgia Tech -38.5 | 58.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Georgia Tech -38.5 | 59.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Tech -32 | 46.1 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Tech -38.5 | 58.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Tech -37.5 | 57.5 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Tech win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Georgia Tech -31.9 · market Georgia Tech -38.5 · difference -6.6 pts (Georgia Tech view)
- Total
- model 46.1 · market 58 · difference -11.9
Model margin is 6.6 pts more toward Mercer than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercer 7.1, Georgia Tech 39.0 | Georgia Tech 98%right winner | 1.1 | 8.9 |
| New formula | Mercer 17.1, Georgia Tech 34.6 | Georgia Tech 86%right winner | 15.5 | 3.2 |
Final: Mercer 11, Georgia Tech 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercer vs Georgia Tech: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Mercer | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.7 | 18.5#120 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.7 | 29.5#117 |
| Yards per play | 7.10 | 5.71#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22 | 5.47#83 |
| Rushing yards per game | 231.0 | 120.0#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.0 | 231.0#70 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.7 | 246.5#134 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.3 | 131.0#19 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.00#86 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 0.00#126 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 1.00#107 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 3.50#129 |
| Stat | Mercer | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.03#115 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.15#122 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 43.1%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 42.0%#93 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 13.8%#49 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 11.6%#71 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 11.6%#112 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 17.9%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 2.09#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.82 | 4.09#92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 24#131 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 33#117 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 61.5#93 |
| Stat | Mercer | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.06#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.00#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.20#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.05#81 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 44.2%#76 |
| Passing success rate | 34.9% | 42.3%#75 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6% | 23.1%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.8% | 32.6%#58 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 36.2%#118 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.0% | 46.2%#54 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 26.1% | 50.0%#125 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3% | 28.6%#135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.0% | 66.7%#97 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercer schedule · Georgia Tech schedule · all Week 3 projections
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