Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mercer 31.4, Samford 16.5 at Seibert Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Mercer wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.9 points and 47.9 combined points.
Mercer is 5-2, scoring 30.6 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+14 per game). Samford is 1-5, scoring 18.2 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-6.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mercer by 37 and Samford by 8 about 80% of the time.
Samford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Mercer is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mercer 31, Samford 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercer / Samford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Mercer -13.5 → Mercer -15.5 | 51.5 → 48.5 | -730 / +476 |
| DraftKings | Mercer -13.5 → Mercer -15.5 | 51.5 → 48.5 | -730 / +476 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Samford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Mercer -15 | 47.9 | 16% |
| Market consensus | Mercer -15.5 | 48.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | Mercer -15.5 | 49.4 | 15% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Samford win probability
- model 16% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Mercer -14.9 · market Mercer -15.5 · difference +0.6 pts (Samford view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 48.5 · difference -0.6
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Samford than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercer 31.4, Samford 16.5 | Mercer 84%right winner | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Mercer 31.5, Samford 16.9 | Mercer 83%right winner | 4.7 | 3.6 |
Final: Mercer 31, Samford 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercer vs Samford: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mercer | Samford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.2 | 14.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 37.9 |
| Yards per play | 7.32 | 4.76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.93 | 6.49 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.9 | 93.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 353.3 | 251.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.3 | 176.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.7 | 281.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 1.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.42 | 4.18 |
| Stat | Mercer | Samford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 44.9% | 33.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1% | 42.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2% | 8.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 15.9% | 11.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2% | 15.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.31 | 2.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47 | 4.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.8 | 72.5 |
| Stat | Mercer | Samford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | -0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.18 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 24.4% |
| Passing success rate | 50.3% | 35.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.8% | 24.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.2% | 31.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3% | 37.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.4% | 44.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1% | 71.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercer schedule · Samford schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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