2026 schedule
Samford Bulldogs
2026 season so far
Samford is 2-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (-5.2 per game).
Samford plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Wofford in Week 9. We project Samford 22, Wofford 24 — Samford wins 43% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
North Alabama Lions
1-0 · SOS #49
Loss 10-22
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Alabama by 4.9
Total 58.3
DraftKings
UNA -7
Total 55.5
Final North Alabama by 12. North Alabama beat the spread. 32 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Alabama -7 (open North Alabama -7.5) · O/U 55.5 · ML +239 / -313 · North Alabama 72% no-vig · model vs market -2.1 pts, -9 pct pts (North Alabama view)
ESPN+ Joe Davis Stadium - vs
Southern Illinois Salukis
1-1 · SOS #30
Loss 18-22
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Southern Illinois by 14.1
Total 58.1
DraftKings
SIU -20.5
Total 54.5
Final Southern Illinois by 4. Samford beat the spread. 40 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Illinois -20.5 (open Southern Illinois -24.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 49.5) · ML -1400 / +730 · Samford 11% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +6 pct pts (Samford view)
ESPN+ Seibert Stadium - at
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
3-0 · SOS #94
Loss 19-45
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Tennessee Tech by 17.9
Total 47.5
DraftKings
TNTC -26.5
Total 48.5
Final Tennessee Tech by 26. Samford beat the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee Tech -26.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +1340 / -5900 · Tennessee Tech 93% no-vig · model vs market -8.6 pts, -5 pct pts (Tennessee Tech view)
ESPN+ Tucker Stadium - vs
VMI Keydets
0-5 · SOS #71
Win 45-7
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Samford by 13.8
Total 47.6
DraftKings
SAM -15.5
Total 46.5
Final Samford by 38. Samford beat the spread. 52 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Samford -15.5 (open Samford -18.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML +514 / -810 · Samford 85% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Samford view)
ESPN+ Seibert Stadium - at
UAB Blazers
3-2 · SOS #94
Loss 14-33
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UAB by 16.8
Total 50.4
DraftKings
UAB -30.5
Total 54.5
Final UAB by 19. Samford beat the spread. 47 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UAB -30.5 · O/U 54.25 (open 51.5) · ML +1700 / -4500 · UAB 95% no-vig · model vs market -13.7 pts, -8 pct pts (UAB view)
ESPN+ Protective Stadium - at
Chattanooga Mocs
4-3 · SOS #87
Loss 3-19
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Chattanooga by 13.1
Total 42.7
DraftKings
UTC -11.5
Total 40.5
Final Chattanooga by 16. Chattanooga beat the spread. 22 points — under the 40.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -11.5 · O/U 40.5 (open 43.5) · ML +314 / -430 · Chattanooga 77% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +3 pct pts (Chattanooga view)
ESPN+ Finley Stadium - vs
Mercer Bears
6-2 · SOS #130
Loss 21-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 14.9
Total 47.9
DraftKings
MER -15.5
Total 48.5
Final Mercer by 10. Samford beat the spread. 52 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -15.5 (open Mercer -13.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 51.5) · ML -730 / +476 · Samford 16% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, -0 pct pts (Samford view)
ESPN+ Seibert Stadium - at
Furman Paladins
2-6 · SOS #20
Win 13-6
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Furman by 6.8
Total 44.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Samford by 7. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Paladin Stadium - vs
Wofford Terriers
5-3 · SOS #120
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 22-24 · 43%
Our number
Wofford by 2
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Seibert Stadium - at
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
6-2 · SOS #113
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 17-33 · 15%
Our number
East Tennessee State by 16
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - vs
Western Carolina Catamounts
3-5 · SOS #27
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 25-31 · 34%
Our number
Western Carolina by 6
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Seibert Stadium - at
Auburn Tigers
4-3 · SOS #3
Sat, Nov 21, 8:30 PM
Week 12
Proj 5-41 · 1%
Our number
Auburn by 36
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECN+ Jordan-Hare Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Samford Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-27.2
Adj. offense
10.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
38.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 17.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 23.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.72 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.75 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 105.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 189.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 203.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 153.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 3.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.00 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.05 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 35.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.0% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.28 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.20 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.04 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 30.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 23.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.9% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 30.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 32.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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