Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Furman 25.5, Samford 18.7 at Paladin Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Furman wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Samford is 1-6, scoring 18.6 and allowing 25.6 points per game (-7 per game). Furman is 2-5, scoring 16.4 and allowing 22.4 points per game (-6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Samford by 16 and Furman by 29 about 80% of the time.
Furman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Furman by about 4.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Samford 13, Furman 6. Samford won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Samford 18.7, Furman 25.5 | Furman 67%wrong winner | 13.8 | 25.2 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Samford 13, Furman 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Samford vs Furman: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Samford | Furman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.6 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.9 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.76 | 5.48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49 | 6.42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 93.5 | 113.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.7 | 243.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 187.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 281.5 | 245.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.91 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 1.92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.18 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Samford | Furman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 40.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.61 | 3.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 3.98 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5 | 65.3 |
| Stat | Samford | Furman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 24.4% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 35.6% | 43.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 29.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.4% | 56.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.5% | 56.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · Furman schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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