Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UAB 33.6, Samford 16.8 at Protective Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: UAB wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.8 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Samford is 1-3, scoring 23 and allowing 24 points per game (-1 per game). UAB is 2-2, scoring 21.8 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-4 per game).
Samford plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why UAB's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Samford by 6 and UAB by 39 about 80% of the time.
UAB gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAB by about 14.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Samford 14, UAB 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 3.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Samford / UAB) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UAB -30.5 | 51.5 → 54.25 | +1700 / -4500 |
| Bovada | UAB -30.5 | 52.5 → 54 | — / — |
| DraftKings | UAB -30.5 | 50.5 → 54.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UAB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UAB -17 | 50.4 | 86% |
| Market consensus | UAB -30.5 | 54.3 | 95% |
| Blended projection | UAB -28.5 | 54.5 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UAB win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model UAB -16.8 · market UAB -30.5 · difference -13.7 pts (UAB view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 54.25 · difference -3.9
Model margin is 13.7 pts more toward Samford than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Samford 16.8, UAB 33.6 | UAB 86%right winner | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| New formula | Samford 17.1, UAB 33.3 | UAB 86%right winner | 2.8 | 3.4 |
Final: Samford 14, UAB 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Samford vs UAB: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Samford | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.0 | 21.8#113 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 25.8#94 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.49#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 5.37#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 105.5 | 182.0#56 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.5 | 168.3#114 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.8 | 222.3#134 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.0 | 106.8#3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.00#89 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.50#121 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50 | 2.50#44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.75#124 |
| Stat | Samford | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.09#73 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.05#75 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 41.8%#88 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 43.6%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0% | 9.3%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 10.1%#38 |
| Havoc rate | 15.2% | 12.3%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 14.5%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.42#120 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.97#83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 63.8#88 |
| Stat | Samford | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.17#26 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.00#101 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.08#99 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.05#43 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.9% | 45.5%#63 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9% | 38.4%#104 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6% | 15.4%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3% | 35.3%#42 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.5% | 25.9%#42 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.2% | 48.3%#36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 39.6%#82 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 45.2%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 66.2%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · UAB schedule · all Week 5 projections
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