Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee Tech 32.7, Samford 14.8 at Tucker Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Tennessee Tech wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.9 points and 47.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Samford is 0-2, scoring 14 and allowing 22 points per game (-8 per game). Tennessee Tech is 2-0, scoring 31 and allowing 11.5 points per game (+19.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Samford by 5 and Tennessee Tech by 40 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee Tech by about 15.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Samford 19, Tennessee Tech 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 16.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Samford / Tennessee Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee Tech -26.5 | 48.5 | +1340 / -5900 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee Tech -26.5 | 48.5 | +1340 / -5900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee Tech -18 | 47.4 | 88% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee Tech -26.5 | 48.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee Tech -25 | 49.4 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee Tech win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee Tech -17.9 · market Tennessee Tech -26.5 · difference -8.6 pts (Tennessee Tech view)
- Total
- model 47.4 · market 48.5 · difference -1.1
Model margin is 8.6 pts more toward Samford than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Samford 14.8, Tennessee Tech 32.7 | Tennessee Tech 88%right winner | 8.1 | 16.6 |
| New formula | Samford 9.6, Tennessee Tech 38.6 | Tennessee Tech 97%right winner | 3.0 | 15.9 |
Final: Samford 19, Tennessee Tech 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Samford vs Tennessee Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Samford | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.6 | 37.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.9 | 18.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.76 | 6.79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49 | 4.71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 93.5 | 196.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.7 | 232.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 116.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 281.5 | 207.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.91 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.18 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Samford | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.61 | 2.85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 4.14 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5 | 63.2 |
| Stat | Samford | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 24.4% | 45.9% |
| Passing success rate | 35.6% | 45.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4% | 43.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.4% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.5% | 62.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · Tennessee Tech schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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