Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Alabama 31.6, Samford 26.7 on a neutral field at Joe Davis Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: North Alabama wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 58.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Samford has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. North Alabama has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Samford by 18 and North Alabama by 27 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Samford 10, North Alabama 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 26.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Samford / North Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Alabama -7.5 → North Alabama -7 | 55.5 | +239 / -313 |
| DraftKings | North Alabama -7.5 → North Alabama -7 | 55.5 | +239 / -313 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Alabama -5 | 58.3 | 63% |
| Market consensus | North Alabama -7 | 55.5 | 72% |
| Blended projection | North Alabama -6.5 | 56.0 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Alabama win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model North Alabama -4.9 · market North Alabama -7 · difference -2.1 pts (North Alabama view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 55.5 · difference +2.8
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Samford than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Samford 26.7, North Alabama 31.6 | North Alabama 63%right winner | 7.1 | 26.3 |
| New formula | Samford 25.9, North Alabama 30.4 | North Alabama 60%right winner | 7.5 | 24.2 |
Final: Samford 10, North Alabama 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Samford vs North Alabama: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Samford | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.6 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.9 | 39.2 |
| Yards per play | 4.76 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49 | 6.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 93.5 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.7 | 199.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 281.5 | 288.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.91 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.18 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Samford | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 41.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.61 | 2.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 4.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5 | 77.6 |
| Stat | Samford | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 24.4% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 35.6% | 32.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 16.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4% | 37.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 41.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.4% | 45.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.5% | 60.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · North Alabama schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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