2026 schedule
North Alabama Lions
2026 season so far
North Alabama is 4-4 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+0.8 per game).
North Alabama plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Central Arkansas in Week 9. We project North Alabama 26, Central Arkansas 28 — North Alabama wins 46% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Samford Bulldogs
0-1 · SOS #52
Win 22-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Alabama by 4.9
Total 58.3
DraftKings
UNA -7
Total 55.5
Final North Alabama by 12. North Alabama beat the spread. 32 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Alabama -7 (open North Alabama -7.5) · O/U 55.5 · ML +239 / -313 · North Alabama 72% no-vig · model vs market -2.1 pts, -9 pct pts (North Alabama view)
ESPN+ Joe Davis StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
Arkansas Razorbacks
1-0 · SOS #20
Loss 14-31
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Arkansas by 36.8
Total 66.8
DraftKings
ARK -40.5
Total 63.5
Final Arkansas by 17. North Alabama beat the spread. 45 points — under the 63.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas -40.5 · O/U 63.25 · model vs market -3.7 pts (Arkansas view)
SEC Network Donald W. Reynolds Razorback StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
SE Louisiana Lions
1-2 · SOS #24
Loss 25-30
Week 2
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 8.4
Total 54
DraftKings
SELA -6.5
Total 51.5
Final SE Louisiana by 5. North Alabama beat the spread. 55 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SE Louisiana -6.5 · O/U 51.5 (open 49.5) · ML +162 / -204 · SE Louisiana 64% no-vig · model vs market +1.9 pts, +7 pct pts (SE Louisiana view)
ESPN+ Strawberry Stadium - vs
Alcorn State Braves
2-2 · SOS #137
Win 38-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
North Alabama by 1
Total 56.8
DraftKings
UNA -13.5
Total 52.5
Final North Alabama by 18. North Alabama beat the spread. 58 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Alabama -13.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +361 / -510 · North Alabama 79% no-vig · model vs market -12.5 pts, -27 pct pts (North Alabama view)
ESPN+ Braly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Western Illinois Leathernecks
2-3 · SOS #62
Win 23-20
Week 4
Our number· pregame
North Alabama by 3.2
Total 58.6
DraftKings
UNA -7
Total 53.5
Final North Alabama by 3. Western Illinois beat the spread. 43 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Alabama -7 (open North Alabama -7.5) · O/U 53.5 · ML +179 / -228 · North Alabama 66% no-vig · model vs market -3.8 pts, -8 pct pts (North Alabama view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 84°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSL)ESPN+ Braly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
1-4 · SOS #43
Win 20-16
Week 5
Our number· pregame
North Alabama by 1.3
Total 47.7
DraftKings
EKU -1.5
Total 49.5
Final North Alabama by 4. North Alabama beat the spread. 36 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Kentucky -1.5 · O/U 49.5 (open 47.5) · ML -102 / -122 · Eastern Kentucky 52% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -6 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRGA)ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Abilene Christian Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #12
Loss 28-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 3.2
Total 49.8
DraftKings
ACU -2.5
Total 49.5
Final Abilene Christian by 3. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 59 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -2.5 (open Abilene Christian -4) · O/U 49.5 (open 51.5) · ML -158 / +127 · North Alabama 42% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -0 pct pts (North Alabama view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 55°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSL)ESPN+ Braly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
Austin Peay Governors
7-2 · SOS #93
Loss 21-27
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 7.6
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Austin Peay by 6. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSL)ESPN+ Braly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Central Arkansas Bears
2-6 · SOS #41
Sat, Oct 31, 9:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-28 · 46%
Our number
Central Arkansas by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 75°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 49% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Estes StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
West Florida Argonauts
4-3 · SOS #89
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 25-24 · 53%
Our number
North Alabama by 1
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Braly StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
West Georgia Wolves
1-7 · SOS #9
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 27-22 · 62%
Our number
North Alabama by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ University Stadium (GA)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Tarleton State Texans
8-0 · SOS #119
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 22-37 · 16%
Our number
Tarleton State by 15
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Braly Stadium
Times shown in your local time
North Alabama Lions stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-20.1
Adj. offense
15.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 23.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.41 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.00 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 152.5 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 182.8 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 122.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 218.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 3.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.25 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 36.8% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.85 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.11 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.09 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.00 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.0% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 22.5% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 32.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56.5% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 59.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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