Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas 51.8, North Alabama 15 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Arkansas wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 36.7 points and 66.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
North Alabama is 1-0, scoring 22 and allowing 10 points per game (+12 per game). Arkansas has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
North Alabama plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Arkansas's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas by 14 and Arkansas by 59 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas by about 34.6. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: North Alabama 14, Arkansas 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.7 points and the total by 21.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Alabama / Arkansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arkansas -40.5 | 63.25 | — / — |
| Bovada | Arkansas -40.5 | 63 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Arkansas -40.5 | 63.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arkansas -36.5 | 66.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Arkansas -40.5 | 63.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Arkansas -40 | 63.2 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Arkansas -36.7 · market Arkansas -40.5 · difference -3.8 pts (Arkansas view)
- Total
- model 66.8 · market 63.25 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward North Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Alabama 15.0, Arkansas 51.8 | Arkansas 99%right winner | 19.7 | 21.8 |
| New formula | North Alabama 11.7, Arkansas 45.1 | Arkansas 97%right winner | 16.5 | 11.8 |
Final: North Alabama 14, Arkansas 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Alabama vs Arkansas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Alabama | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3 | 32.9#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.2 | 33.8#129 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 7.29#5 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.98 | 6.52#127 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.6 | 213.1#17 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.4 | 260.2#31 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 208.6 | 199.9#122 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 288.2 | 237.3#101 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.58#123 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.58#121 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.83#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 2.33#107 |
| Stat | North Alabama | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.19#6 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.18#133 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 48.2%#14 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 47.7%#129 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 18.7%#1 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 16.1%#135 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 13.3%#50 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 13.7%#109 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.83 | 4.40#24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09 | 4.70#133 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 27#126 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 28#46 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 77.6 | 64.9#86 |
| Stat | North Alabama | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.30#1 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.09#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.13#128 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.23#130 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 53.2%#1 |
| Passing success rate | 32.5% | 43.7%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0% | 19.1%#90 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.6% | 39.7%#4 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1% | 36.7%#131 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5% | 48.2%#17 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.6% | 45.3%#118 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.7% | 74.5%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.9% | 70.6%#124 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Alabama schedule · Arkansas schedule · all Week 1 projections
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