Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Alabama 28.9, Alcorn State 27.9 at Braly Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: North Alabama wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 56.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Alcorn State is 2-1, scoring 37.3 and allowing 35.7 points per game (+1.6 per game). North Alabama is 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.7 points per game (-3.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alcorn State by 22 and North Alabama by 24 about 80% of the time.
North Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Alcorn State would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Alcorn State 20, North Alabama 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17 points and the total by 1.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alcorn State / North Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Alabama -13.5 | 52.5 | +361 / -510 |
| DraftKings | North Alabama -13.5 | 52.5 | +361 / -510 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Alabama -1 | 56.7 | 53% |
| Market consensus | North Alabama -13.5 | 52.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | North Alabama -11.5 | 53.3 | 78% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Alabama win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference -27 pts
- Margin
- model North Alabama -1 · market North Alabama -13.5 · difference -12.5 pts (North Alabama view)
- Total
- model 56.7 · market 52.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 12.5 pts more toward Alcorn State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alcorn State 27.9, North Alabama 28.9 | North Alabama 53%right winner | 17.0 | 1.3 |
| New formula | Alcorn State 24.3, North Alabama 33.5 | North Alabama 73%right winner | 8.9 | 0.2 |
Final: Alcorn State 20, North Alabama 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alcorn State vs North Alabama: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alcorn State | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2 | 39.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.63 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.26 | 6.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.8 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 171.2 | 199.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.1 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 288.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.27 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 41.2% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 41.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 2.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.91 | 4.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.1 | 77.6 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 32.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8% | 16.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.0% | 37.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 41.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.6% | 45.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.6% | 60.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alcorn State schedule · North Alabama schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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