Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Alabama 30.9, Western Illinois 27.7 at Braly Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: North Alabama wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 58.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Western Illinois is 2-2, scoring 35.8 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+12.5 per game). North Alabama is 2-2, scoring 24.8 and allowing 22.8 points per game (+2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Illinois by 19 and North Alabama by 26 about 80% of the time.
North Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Alabama by about 1.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Western Illinois 20, North Alabama 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.2 points and the total by 15.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Illinois / North Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Alabama -7.5 → North Alabama -7 | 53.5 | +179 / -228 |
| DraftKings | North Alabama -7.5 → North Alabama -7 | 53.5 | +179 / -228 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Alabama -3 | 58.6 | 58% |
| Market consensus | North Alabama -7 | 53.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | North Alabama -6.5 | 54.3 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Alabama win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model North Alabama -3.2 · market North Alabama -7 · difference -3.8 pts (North Alabama view)
- Total
- model 58.6 · market 53.5 · difference +5.1
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Western Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Illinois 27.7, North Alabama 30.9 | North Alabama 58%right winner | 0.2 | 15.6 |
| New formula | Western Illinois 27.0, North Alabama 30.4 | North Alabama 59%right winner | 0.4 | 14.4 |
Final: Western Illinois 20, North Alabama 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Illinois vs North Alabama: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Illinois | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 | 39.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.24 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.85 | 6.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.7 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.8 | 199.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.0 | 288.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 37.7% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 41.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.40 | 2.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08 | 4.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9 | 77.6 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 32.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4% | 16.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.1% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2% | 37.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 41.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3% | 45.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 60.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Illinois schedule · North Alabama schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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