2026 schedule
Western Illinois Leathernecks
2026 season so far
Western Illinois is 4-4 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.5 and allowing 25.1 points per game (+9.4 per game).
Western Illinois plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Charleston Southern in Week 9. We project Western Illinois 27, Charleston Southern 26 — Western Illinois wins 53% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Northwestern (IA) Red Raiders
No record · SOS #65
Win 65-14
Week 1
Our number· model now
Western Illinois by 17
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Illinois by 51. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - vs
Illinois State Redbirds
2-0 · SOS #87
Loss 10-41
Week 1
Our number· model now
Illinois State by 11
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 31. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - at
Wisconsin Badgers
1-1 · SOS #22
Loss 9-36
Week 2
Our number· model now
Wisconsin by 30
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final Wisconsin by 27. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
BTN Camp Randall Stadium - vs
Morehead State Eagles
1-3 · SOS #164
Win 59-2
Week 3
Our number· model now
Western Illinois by 24
Total 64
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Illinois by 57. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - at
North Alabama Lions
3-2 · SOS #48
Loss 20-23
Week 4
Our number· model now
North Alabama by 2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final North Alabama by 3. 43 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Braly Stadium - vs
Tennessee State Tigers
1-4 · SOS #35
Win 28-21
Week 5
Our number· model now
Western Illinois by 15
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Illinois by 7. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - at
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
4-3 · SOS #71
Loss 30-40
Week 7
Our number· model now
Southeast Missouri State by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Southeast Missouri State by 10. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Houck Field - vs
UT Martin Skyhawks
3-5 · SOS #43
Win 55-24
Week 8
Our number· model now
Western Illinois by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Illinois by 31. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - at
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
4-4 · SOS #61
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 27-26 · 53%
Our number
Western Illinois by 1
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Buccaneer Field - at
Eastern Illinois Panthers
2-6 · SOS #46
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 33-24 · 73%
Our number
Western Illinois by 9
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ O'Brien Field - vs
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #56
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 29-27 · 56%
Our number
Western Illinois by 2
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - at
Lindenwood Lions
3-4 · SOS #104
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 32-26 · 64%
Our number
Western Illinois by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hunter Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Western Illinois Leathernecks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-20.5
Adj. offense
19.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
39.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 34.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.51 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.32 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 224.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 231.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 139.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 199.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.88 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.25 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.11 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.03 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 43.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.79 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.52 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 70.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.20 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.09 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.04 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 46.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.9% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 44.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 49.4% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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