Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wisconsin 41.5, Western Illinois 6.5 at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Wisconsin wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35 points and 48 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Western Illinois is 1-1, scoring 37.5 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+10 per game). Wisconsin is 0-1, scoring 13 and allowing 41 points per game (-28 per game).
Western Illinois plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Wisconsin's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wisconsin by 12 and Wisconsin by 58 about 80% of the time.
Wisconsin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wisconsin by about 32.9. The game is on BTN.
Result: Western Illinois 9, Wisconsin 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8 points and the total by 3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Illinois / Wisconsin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wisconsin -39.25 → Wisconsin -43.25 | 49 → 53.25 | — / — |
| Bovada | Wisconsin -40 → Wisconsin -43 | 49.5 → 53 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Wisconsin -38.5 → Wisconsin -43.5 | 48.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wisconsin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wisconsin -35 | 48.0 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Wisconsin -43.5 | 53.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Wisconsin -42 | 53.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wisconsin win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Wisconsin -35 · market Wisconsin -43.25 · difference -8.2 pts (Wisconsin view)
- Total
- model 48.0 · market 53.25 · difference -5.2
Model margin is 8.2 pts more toward Western Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Illinois 6.5, Wisconsin 41.5 | Wisconsin 99%right winner | 8.0 | 3.0 |
| New formula | Western Illinois 10.6, Wisconsin 44.7 | Wisconsin 98%right winner | 7.0 | 10.3 |
Final: Western Illinois 9, Wisconsin 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Illinois vs Wisconsin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Illinois | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 12.8#135 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 | 21.6#40 |
| Yards per play | 5.24 | 4.92#130 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.85 | 5.54#49 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.7 | 147.3#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.8 | 135.5#130 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 125.0#17 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.0 | 214.3#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.42#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.58#126 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 2.58#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 2.33#110 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.18#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.01#71 |
| Success rate | 37.7% | 35.7%#131 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 44.9%#114 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 9.1%#134 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2% | 11.9%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8% | 11.6%#97 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 14.8%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.40 | 2.45#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08 | 3.50#31 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | own 30#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9 | 57.4#135 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.11#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.27#135 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.05#35 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.06#85 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1% | 35.2%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 36.4%#114 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4% | 17.0%#50 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.1% | 26.5%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 29.2%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2% | 33.5%#128 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 40.3%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3% | 54.5%#106 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 50.0%#17 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Illinois schedule · Wisconsin schedule · all Week 2 projections
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