Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Illinois 36.7, Morehead State 26.7 at Hanson Field in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Western Illinois wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 63.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Morehead State is 1-2, scoring 40.7 and allowing 43 points per game (-2.3 per game). Western Illinois is 1-2, scoring 28 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-2.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morehead State by 13 and Western Illinois by 33 about 80% of the time.
Western Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Illinois by about 7.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Morehead State 2, Western Illinois 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 47 points and the total by 2.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morehead State / Western Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Illinois -18.5 → Western Illinois -20.5 | 58.5 → 61.5 | +870 / -1900 |
| DraftKings | Western Illinois -18.5 → Western Illinois -20.5 | 58.5 → 61.5 | +870 / -1900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Illinois -10 | 63.4 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Western Illinois -20.5 | 61.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Western Illinois -19 | 61.5 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Illinois win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -16 pts
- Margin
- model Western Illinois -10 · market Western Illinois -20.5 · difference -10.5 pts (Western Illinois view)
- Total
- model 63.4 · market 61.5 · difference +1.9
Model margin is 10.5 pts more toward Morehead State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morehead State 26.7, Western Illinois 36.7 | Western Illinois 74%right winner | 47.0 | 2.4 |
| New formula | Morehead State 27.3, Western Illinois 36.6 | Western Illinois 73%right winner | 47.7 | 2.9 |
Final: Morehead State 2, Western Illinois 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morehead State vs Western Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morehead State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 34.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.78 | 5.24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 6.85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.8 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.3 | 224.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 232.8 | 212.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9 | 242.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83 | 2.45 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 37.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 66.9 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.0% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1% | 18.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 31.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 56.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morehead State schedule · Western Illinois schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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