Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Illinois 31.3, Tennessee State 21.5 at Hanson Field in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Western Illinois wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 52.8 combined points.
Tennessee State is 1-3, scoring 14.8 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-21.5 per game). Western Illinois is 2-3, scoring 32.6 and allowing 23.2 points per game (+9.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee State by 13 and Western Illinois by 32 about 80% of the time.
Western Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Illinois by about 7.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tennessee State 21, Western Illinois 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.7 points and the total by 3.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee State / Western Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Illinois -12.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +349 / -489 |
| DraftKings | Western Illinois -12.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +349 / -489 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Illinois -9.5 | 52.8 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Western Illinois -12.5 | 52.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Western Illinois -12 | 53.1 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Illinois win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Western Illinois -9.7 · market Western Illinois -12.5 · difference -2.8 pts (Western Illinois view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 52.5 · difference +0.3
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Tennessee State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee State 21.5, Western Illinois 31.3 | Western Illinois 74%right winner | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| New formula | Tennessee State 20.0, Western Illinois 32.3 | Western Illinois 79%right winner | 5.4 | 3.3 |
Final: Tennessee State 21, Western Illinois 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee State vs Western Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.9 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 34.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.72 | 5.24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44 | 6.85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.6 | 224.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 212.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.4 | 242.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.08 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.45 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 30.7% | 37.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 15.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 19.7% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.44 | 3.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.8 | 66.9 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.28 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.3% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 30.2% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 31.9% | 18.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.2% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.4% | 31.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.7% | 56.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee State schedule · Western Illinois schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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