2026 schedule
Tennessee State Tigers
2026 season so far
Tennessee State is 2-6 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.5 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-13.9 per game).
Tennessee State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Lindenwood in Week 9. We project Tennessee State 20, Lindenwood 27 — Tennessee State wins 31% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Jackson State Tigers
1-0 · SOS #163
Loss 24-26
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Jackson State by 10.1
Total 45.7
DraftKings
JKST -12.5
Total 49.5
Final Jackson State by 2. Tennessee State beat the spread. 50 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jackson State -12.5 (open Jackson State -15.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -650 / +435 · Tennessee State 18% no-vig · model vs market +2.4 pts, +8 pct pts (Tennessee State view)
ESPN+ Nissan StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - at
#3 Georgia Bulldogs
1-0 · SOS #52
Loss 3-63
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Georgia by 46.9
Total 46.9
DraftKings
UGA -49.5
Total 55.5
Final Georgia by 60. Georgia beat the spread. 66 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia -49.25 (open Georgia -47.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 55.5) · model vs market -2.4 pts (Georgia view)
SECN+ Sanford StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - at
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
2-1 · SOS #152
Loss 3-30
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Alabama A&M by 3
Total 48.8
DraftKings
TNST -3.5
Total 49.5
Final Alabama A&M by 27. Alabama A&M beat the spread. 33 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee State -3.5 (open Tennessee State -1.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -147 / +118 · Alabama A&M 44% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +14 pct pts (Alabama A&M view)
Louis Crews StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
Florida A&M Rattlers
1-3 · SOS #21
Win 29-26
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Florida A&M by 8.3
Total 47.7
DraftKings
FAMU -3
Total 47.5
Final Tennessee State by 3. Tennessee State beat the spread. 55 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida A&M -3 (open Florida A&M -4.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML +123 / -154 · Florida A&M 57% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +13 pct pts (Florida A&M view)
Bragg Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - at
Western Illinois Leathernecks
3-3 · SOS #95
Loss 21-28
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Western Illinois by 9.8
Total 52.8
DraftKings
WIU -12.5
Total 52.5
Final Western Illinois by 7. Tennessee State beat the spread. 49 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Illinois -12.5 · O/U 52.5 (open 51.5) · ML +349 / -489 · Western Illinois 79% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -5 pct pts (Western Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 74°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMQB)ESPN+ Hanson FieldPregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
UT Martin Skyhawks
2-4 · SOS #45
Loss 28-42
Week 6
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 46.7
DraftKings
UTM -8.5
Total 46.5
Final UT Martin by 14. UT Martin beat the spread. 70 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Martin -8.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML -349 / +263 · Tennessee State 26% no-vig · model vs market +8.4 pts, +24 pct pts (Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 64°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN+ Nissan StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - vs
Morgan State Bears
5-2 · SOS #167
Win 25-16
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 4.2
Total 52.6
DraftKings
MORG -6
Total 50.5
Final Tennessee State by 9. Tennessee State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Morgan State -6 (open Morgan State -5.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML -227 / +178 · Tennessee State 34% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +5 pct pts (Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 10 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN+ Nissan Stadium - vs
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
4-4 · SOS #61
Loss 7-20
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Charleston Southern by 5
Total 44.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Charleston Southern by 13. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind 8 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN+ Nissan StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Lindenwood Lions
3-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 20-27 · 31%
Our number
Lindenwood by 7
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph E, 10% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Hunter StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
5-3 · SOS #70
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 18-28 · 27%
Our number
Southeast Missouri State by 10
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Nissan StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Eastern Illinois Panthers
2-6 · SOS #46
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 24-22 · 54%
Our number
Tennessee State by 2
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Nissan StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #54
Sat, Nov 21, 6:30 PM
Week 12
Proj 15-30 · 16%
Our number
Gardner-Webb by 15
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Tennessee State Tigers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-35.6
Adj. offense
6.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
42.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 17.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 31.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.83 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.66 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 83.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 230.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 181.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 240.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.05 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 36.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.3% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 18.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 1.94 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.03 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.18 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.12 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 32.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 26.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 28.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 48.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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