Matchup analysis
Our model projects Gardner-Webb 30, Tennessee State 15 at Ernest W. Spangler Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Gardner-Webb wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.4 points and 44.7 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Tennessee State is 2-6 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.5 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-13.9 per game). Gardner-Webb is 2-6 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee State by 7 and Gardner-Webb by 38 about 80% of the time.
Gardner-Webb gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Gardner-Webb by about 13.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Tennessee State vs Gardner-Webb: stat comparison
| Stat | Tennessee State | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.5 | 19.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.4 | 22.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.83 | 5.20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66 | 5.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 83.0 | 108.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 230.3 | 250.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.1 | 169.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.1 | 164.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | -0.12 |
| Success rate | 36.9% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9% | 35.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 17.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.1% | 15.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.94 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.03 | 3.24 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 69.0 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.5% | 32.6% |
| Passing success rate | 38.7% | 36.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.2% | 24.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6% | 26.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.1% | 26.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.0% | 32.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.3% | 27.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 28.0% | 42.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1% | 50.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee State schedule · Gardner-Webb schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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