2026 schedule
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
2026 season so far
Gardner-Webb is 2-6 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.9 per game).
Gardner-Webb plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Southeast Missouri State in Week 9. We project Gardner-Webb 23, Southeast Missouri State 24 — Gardner-Webb wins 47% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Austin Peay Governors
1-0 · SOS #75
Loss 17-35
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 8.3
Total 62.5
DraftKings
APSU -14.5
Total 59.5
Final Austin Peay by 18. Austin Peay beat the spread. 52 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -14.5 · O/U 59.5 · model vs market -6.2 pts (Austin Peay view)
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
Wofford Terriers
2-0 · SOS #120
Loss 13-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Wofford by 5.2
Total 48.8
DraftKings
WOF -8.5
Total 50.5
Final Wofford by 4. Gardner-Webb beat the spread. 30 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wofford -8.5 (open Wofford -7) · O/U 50.5 (open 47.5) · ML +230 / -300 · Wofford 71% no-vig · model vs market -3.3 pts, -8 pct pts (Wofford view)
ESPN+ Gibbs StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Liberty Flames
1-1 · SOS #134
Loss 23-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Liberty by 30.8
Total 51.2
DraftKings
LIB -28.5
Total 55.5
Final Liberty by 1. Gardner-Webb beat the spread. 47 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Liberty -28.5 (open Liberty -26.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 55.25) · ML +1700 / -4500 · Liberty 95% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Liberty view)
ESPN+ Williams Stadium (VA)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - vs
North Carolina Central Eagles
2-2 · SOS #144
Win 44-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Gardner-Webb by 10
Total 52.8
DraftKings
GWEB -7
Total 53.5
Final Gardner-Webb by 24. Gardner-Webb beat the spread. 64 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Gardner-Webb -7 (open Gardner-Webb -3.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML +236 / -309 · Gardner-Webb 72% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Gardner-Webb view)
ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - at
Marshall Thundering Herd
3-1 · SOS #106
Loss 35-36
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Marshall by 14.5
Total 56.3
DraftKings
MRSH -24.5
Total 56.5
Final Marshall by 1. Gardner-Webb beat the spread. 71 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Marshall -25 (open Marshall -23.5) · O/U 56.25 (open 51.25) · ML +1050 / -2300 · Marshall 92% no-vig · model vs market -10.5 pts, -9 pct pts (Marshall view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 9 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHTS)ESPN+ Joan C. Edwards StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
2-3 · SOS #61
Win 12-10
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Gardner-Webb by 1.1
Total 47.3
DraftKings
GWEB -7
Total 44.5
Final Gardner-Webb by 2. Charleston Southern beat the spread. 22 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Gardner-Webb -7 (open Gardner-Webb -7.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 48.5) · ML -285 / +219 · Charleston Southern 30% no-vig · model vs market +5.9 pts, +17 pct pts (Charleston Southern view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 73°F, Wind 3 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHS)ESPN+ Buccaneer FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Eastern Illinois Panthers
2-4 · SOS #46
Loss 7-21
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Gardner-Webb by 17.1
Total 53.7
DraftKings
GWEB -12.5
Total 47.5
Final Eastern Illinois by 14. Eastern Illinois beat the spread. 28 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Gardner-Webb -12.5 (open Gardner-Webb -13.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 51.5) · ML +372 / -529 · Gardner-Webb 80% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Gardner-Webb view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 62°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEHO)ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
UT Martin Skyhawks
3-4 · SOS #45
Loss 6-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Gardner-Webb by 1.2
Total 50
DraftKings
GWEB -1.5
Total 51.5
Final UT Martin by 11. UT Martin beat the spread. 23 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Gardner-Webb -1.5 · O/U 51.5 (open 48.5) · ML -121 / -102 · UT Martin 48% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, -1 pct pts (UT Martin view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUCY)ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitBounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last gameFlip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - at
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
5-3 · SOS #70
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 23-24 · 47%
Our number
Southeast Missouri State by 1
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 2 mph ESE, 6% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Houck FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - vs
Lindenwood Lions
3-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Nov 7, 6:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 29-19 · 73%
Our number
Gardner-Webb by 10
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Western Illinois Leathernecks
4-4 · SOS #95
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 27-29 · 44%
Our number
Western Illinois by 2
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hanson FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Tennessee State Tigers
2-6 · SOS #33
Sat, Nov 21, 6:30 PM
Week 12
Proj 30-15 · 84%
Our number
Gardner-Webb by 15
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-20.6
Adj. offense
14.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 19.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 22.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.20 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.48 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 108.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 250.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 169.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 164.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.07 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.12 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.0% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.99 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.24 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 17 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 17 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.09 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.12 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 32.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 36.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 24.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.5% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 32.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 27.4% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 42.8% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.4% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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