Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Marshall 35.4, Gardner-Webb 20.9 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Marshall wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.5 points and 56.3 combined points.
Gardner-Webb is 1-3, scoring 24.3 and allowing 24 points per game (+0.3 per game). Marshall is 2-1, scoring 19.3 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-12.4 per game).
Gardner-Webb plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Marshall's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Gardner-Webb by 8 and Marshall by 37 about 80% of the time.
Marshall gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Marshall by about 12.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Gardner-Webb 35, Marshall 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.5 points and the total by 14.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Gardner-Webb / Marshall) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marshall -23.5 → Marshall -25 | 51.25 → 56.25 | +1050 / -2300 |
| DraftKings | Marshall -23.5 → Marshall -24.5 | 50.5 → 56.5 | +1100 / -2100 |
| Bovada | Marshall -23.5 → Marshall -25.5 | 52 → 56 | +1000 / -2500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Marshall win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Marshall -14.5 | 56.3 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Marshall -25 | 56.3 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Marshall -23.5 | 56.6 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Marshall win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Marshall -14.5 · market Marshall -25 · difference -10.5 pts (Marshall view)
- Total
- model 56.3 · market 56.25 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 10.5 pts more toward Gardner-Webb than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Gardner-Webb 20.9, Marshall 35.4 | Marshall 83%right winner | 13.5 | 14.7 |
| New formula | Gardner-Webb 21.1, Marshall 34.5 | Marshall 81%right winner | 12.4 | 15.4 |
Final: Gardner-Webb 35, Marshall 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Gardner-Webb vs Marshall: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 19.3#123 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 31.7#119 |
| Yards per play | 5.68 | 5.20#117 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 7.05#127 |
| Rushing yards per game | 106.5 | 144.3#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 309.8 | 166.0#115 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.5 | 153.7#87 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.0 | 328.0#136 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.33#40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.67#113 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 0.67#131 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 0.67#31 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.11#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09 | +0.17#124 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 42.9%#79 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.5% | 49.7%#134 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 9.8%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 14.0%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 19.9% | 8.2%#136 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.0% | 14.7%#103 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.39 | 3.92#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.43 | 4.50#112 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | own 28#113 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 19 | own 29#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.3 | 59.7#113 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.07#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.17#54 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.10#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.38#132 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.2% | 41.8%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 38.8% | 44.4%#65 |
| Run stuff rate | 28.0% | 20.0%#112 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4% | 23.4%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1% | 30.4%#81 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 31.4%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 40.0%#87 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 62.5%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7.1% | 63.6%#88 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Gardner-Webb schedule · Marshall schedule · all Week 4 projections
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