Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Liberty 41, Gardner-Webb 10.2 at Williams Stadium (VA) in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Liberty wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.8 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Gardner-Webb is 0-2, scoring 15 and allowing 26 points per game (-11 per game). Liberty is 0-1, scoring 13 and allowing 20 points per game (-7 per game).
Gardner-Webb plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Liberty's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 8 and Liberty by 53 about 80% of the time.
Liberty gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Liberty by about 28.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Gardner-Webb 23, Liberty 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 29.8 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Gardner-Webb / Liberty) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Liberty -26.5 → Liberty -28.5 | 55.25 → 55.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
| Bovada | Liberty -27.5 → Liberty -28.5 | 55 → 55.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Liberty -25.5 → Liberty -28.5 | 55.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Liberty win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Liberty -31 | 51.1 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Liberty -28.5 | 55.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Liberty -29 | 55.6 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Liberty win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Liberty -30.8 · market Liberty -28.5 · difference +2.3 pts (Liberty view)
- Total
- model 51.1 · market 55.5 · difference -4.4
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Liberty than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Gardner-Webb 10.2, Liberty 41.0 | Liberty 98%right winner | 29.8 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Gardner-Webb 14.5, Liberty 36.9 | Liberty 91%right winner | 21.4 | 4.5 |
Final: Gardner-Webb 23, Liberty 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Gardner-Webb vs Liberty: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 25.6#83 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 26.5#77 |
| Yards per play | 6.05 | 5.87#69 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.89#77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.5 | 204.8#24 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 185.4#106 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.7 | 185.7#100 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7 | 194.8#36 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 1.67#128 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.00#73 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 1.33#115 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 1.83#77 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.04#59 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.08#113 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 44.4%#47 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 42.6%#81 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 13.8%#28 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 13.7%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 10.8%#114 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 12.4%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.61#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38 | 4.35#116 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | own 30#46 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 32#121 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 66.4#65 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.10#25 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.05#102 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.08#117 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.07#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.4% | 46.6%#39 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3% | 39.3%#93 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 15.3%#25 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 31.9%#49 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 32.7%#106 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.8% | 41.9%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 45.7%#121 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.9% | 59.1%#79 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.3% | 66.3%#109 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Gardner-Webb schedule · Liberty schedule · all Week 2 projections
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