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2026 schedule

Liberty Flames

6-1SOS #127

2026 season so far

Liberty is 6-1 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 14 points per game (+17.6 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Liberty ranks 59th of 139 FBS teams overall — 75th on offense and 47th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Florida International in Week 9. We project Liberty 27, Florida International 14 — Liberty wins 81% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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Liberty Flames stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+2.1

59th in FBS

Adj. offense

25.6

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

23.5

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat2026FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.31.652 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.14.07 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).6.6229 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.5.0328 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.233.111 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.182.3114 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.129.935 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.176.423 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.0.143 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.1.2926 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.2.0077 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.1.8676 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat2026FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.+0.1637 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.-0.0913 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.47.5%27 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.35.6%19 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.15.2%21 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.11.9%76 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.15.6%30 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.11.9%37 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.4.1563 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.3.049 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.own 349 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.own 257 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.62.7102 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat2026FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.+0.1816 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.+0.1451 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.-0.0530 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.-0.1315 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.52.5%4 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.40.5%84 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.13.4%16 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.32.4%53 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.26.6%33 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.42.7%60 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.33.3%25 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.58.7%88 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.33.6%2 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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