Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Liberty 26.7, Kennesaw State 19.7 at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Liberty wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Liberty is 5-1, scoring 31.2 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+15.9 per game). Kennesaw State is 1-5, scoring 22.3 and allowing 23.5 points per game (-1.2 per game).
Liberty's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets Kennesaw State's below-average defense (92nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Liberty puts up. Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th) should limit Kennesaw State's below-average offense (114th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 30 and Kennesaw State by 16 about 80% of the time.
Kennesaw State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Liberty is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21 points and the total by 6.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Liberty / Kennesaw State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Liberty -8.5 | 50.5 | -370 / +290 |
| Opening line | Liberty -9.5 | 47.5 | -400 / +310 |
| DraftKings | Liberty -8.5 | 50.5 | -380 / +300 |
| FanDuel | Liberty -9.5 | 50.5 | -360 / +280 |
| BetRivers | Liberty -9.5 | 50.5 | -360 / +270 |
| BetMGM | Liberty -8.5 | 50.5 | -350 / +290 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kennesaw State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Liberty -7 | 46.3 | 32% |
| Market consensus | Liberty -8.5 | 50.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | Liberty -8.5 | 51.0 | 29% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kennesaw State win probability
- model 32% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Liberty -7 · market Liberty -8.5 · difference +1.5 pts (Kennesaw State view)
- Total
- model 46.3 · market 50.5 · difference -4.2
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Kennesaw State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Liberty 26.7, Kennesaw State 19.7 | Liberty 68%right winner | 21.0 | 6.3 |
| New formula | Liberty 27.2, Kennesaw State 19.5 | Liberty 70%right winner | 20.2 | 6.7 |
Final: Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Liberty vs Kennesaw State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Liberty | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.2#59 | 22.3#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#15 | 23.5#67 |
| Yards per play | 6.62#32 | 5.84#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.10#34 | 5.84#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 235.8#12 | 150.3#96 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.5#111 | 228.5#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.2#48 | 148.2#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 164.3#17 | 230.3#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.17#9 | 0.67#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#37 | 0.50#122 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#76 | 1.00#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#98 | 1.00#21 |
| Stat | Liberty | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#36 | +0.10#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#22 | +0.08#88 |
| Success rate | 48.0%#28 | 43.9%#59 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6%#20 | 44.0%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#22 | 10.5%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#68 | 12.0%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 15.6%#31 | 11.5%#124 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#40 | 10.1%#17 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.06#76 | 4.43#44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#29 | 3.91#81 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#13 | own 26#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#23 | own 29#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0#98 | 64.8#75 |
| Stat | Liberty | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#21 | +0.09#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#53 | +0.10#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#32 | -0.02#44 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#25 | +0.18#109 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.1%#5 | 44.8%#68 |
| Passing success rate | 41.8%#77 | 43.7%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.6%#21 | 19.1%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.0%#44 | 29.8%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7%#35 | 34.6%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#45 | 41.7%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.5%#11 | 38.7%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.6%#91 | 62.4%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.8%#3 | 66.7%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Liberty schedule · Kennesaw State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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