Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Liberty 31.6, Sam Houston 19.6 at Williams Stadium (VA) in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Liberty wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12 points and 51.2 combined points.
Sam Houston is 1-3, scoring 27.8 and allowing 24 points per game (+3.8 per game). Liberty is 4-1, scoring 30.4 and allowing 17.8 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) should limit Sam Houston's below-average offense (113th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Liberty's below-average offense (83rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) against Sam Houston's below-average defense (116th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sam Houston by 11 and Liberty by 35 about 80% of the time.
Liberty gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Liberty by about 9.9. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Sam Houston 3, Liberty 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20 points and the total by 13.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sam Houston / Liberty) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Liberty -13.75 → Liberty -13.5 | 52.5 → 52.75 | +417.5 / -575 |
| DraftKings | Liberty -13.5 | 52.5 | +410 / -550 |
| Bovada | Liberty -14 → Liberty -13.5 | 52.5 → 53 | +425 / -600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Liberty win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Liberty -12 | 51.2 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Liberty -13.5 | 52.8 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Liberty -13.5 | 53.2 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Liberty win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Liberty -12 · market Liberty -13.5 · difference -1.5 pts (Liberty view)
- Total
- model 51.2 · market 52.75 · difference -1.5
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sam Houston 19.6, Liberty 31.6 | Liberty 78%right winner | 20.0 | 13.2 |
| New formula | Sam Houston 19.1, Liberty 31.0 | Liberty 78%right winner | 20.0 | 12.1 |
Final: Sam Houston 3, Liberty 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sam Houston vs Liberty: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Sam Houston | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#79 | 30.4#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#76 | 17.8#34 |
| Yards per play | 6.23#65 | 6.44#55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21#49 | 5.30#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 121.3#125 | 222.8#27 |
| Net passing yards per game | 303.8#15 | 195.8#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.8#127 | 144.4#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 136.3#5 | 172.4#33 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#86 | 0.20#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#65 | 1.40#26 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#51 | 2.00#77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#110 | 2.40#106 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#114 | +0.17#38 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#22 | -0.10#18 |
| Success rate | 45.0%#51 | 46.8%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1%#55 | 33.5%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#114 | 14.7%#32 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#82 | 11.3%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 18.3%#7 | 16.7%#19 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.4%#133 | 12.9%#70 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78#96 | 3.73#102 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.45#41 | 3.62#54 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#96 | own 34#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#79 | own 27#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#46 | 65.0#76 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#132 | +0.17#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#85 | +0.15#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#124 | -0.07#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.30#3 | -0.13#21 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.0%#85 | 49.5%#25 |
| Passing success rate | 45.5%#46 | 42.7%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3%#112 | 12.5%#13 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.6%#47 | 35.9%#31 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#56 | 26.4%#39 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.6%#68 | 43.1%#65 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 27.8%#9 | 32.2%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.3%#35 | 52.6%#111 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.3%#41 | 41.4%#10 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sam Houston schedule · Liberty schedule · all Week 6 projections
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