Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Liberty 25.5, Ball State 21.3 at Williams Stadium (VA) in Week 3. That is a lean: Liberty wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 46.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Ball State is 1-1, scoring 22 and allowing 36.5 points per game (-14.5 per game). Liberty is 1-1, scoring 18.5 and allowing 21.5 points per game (-3 per game).
Liberty's below-average defense (88th) should limit Ball State's struggling offense (130th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Liberty's struggling offense (120th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense) against Ball State's struggling defense (135th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ball State by 18 and Liberty by 27 about 80% of the time.
Liberty gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Liberty by about 2.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ball State 15, Liberty 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 31.8 points and the total by 19.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ball State / Liberty) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Liberty -14.25 → Liberty -14.5 | 53.25 → 49.25 | +450 / -637.5 |
| DraftKings | Liberty -14.5 | 55.5 → 49.5 | +470 / -650 |
| Bovada | Liberty -14 → Liberty -14.5 | 51 → 49 | +430 / -625 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Liberty win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Liberty -4 | 46.8 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Liberty -14.5 | 49.3 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Liberty -13 | 50.0 | 81% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Liberty win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -22 pts
- Margin
- model Liberty -4.2 · market Liberty -14.5 · difference -10.3 pts (Liberty view)
- Total
- model 46.8 · market 49.25 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 10.3 pts more toward Ball State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ball State 21.3, Liberty 25.5 | Liberty 61%right winner | 31.8 | 19.2 |
| New formula | Ball State 18.9, Liberty 32.0 | Liberty 80%right winner | 22.9 | 15.2 |
Final: Ball State 15, Liberty 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ball State vs Liberty: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ball State | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.0#108 | 18.5#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.5#130 | 21.5#75 |
| Yards per play | 4.96#123 | 5.39#112 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.63#132 | 5.47#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.5#106 | 163.0#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 176.0#106 | 182.0#103 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 220.5#129 | 162.0#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 298.5#132 | 166.0#45 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#99 | 0.00#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#41 | 1.50#45 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#73 | 1.00#124 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#118 | 3.00#127 |
| Stat | Ball State | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#101 | +0.00#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#85 | -0.12#17 |
| Success rate | 33.7%#132 | 37.5%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2%#104 | 34.2%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3%#61 | 12.5%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#112 | 10.8%#53 |
| Havoc rate | 20.0%#8 | 20.0%#9 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3%#95 | 18.0%#129 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.75#103 | 2.00#137 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.75#135 | 3.22#30 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#80 | own 30#81 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#26 | own 28#69 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0#89 | 64.0#88 |
| Stat | Ball State | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#21 | +0.01#99 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#114 | -0.00#101 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#30 | -0.02#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#112 | -0.24#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.5%#127 | 40.5%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 34.5%#119 | 33.3%#123 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0%#133 | 13.5%#23 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#109 | 31.8%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#67 | 25.6%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0%#131 | 32.1%#118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#76 | 37.5%#71 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.0%#136 | 25.0%#137 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 100.0%#134 | 33.3%#16 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Liberty schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.