Matchup analysis
Our model projects Liberty 27, Florida International 14 at Williams Stadium (VA) in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Liberty wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Florida International is 3-4 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+3.8 per game). Liberty is 6-1 against the 134th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 14 points per game (+17.6 per game).
Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) should limit Florida International's struggling offense (126th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.1 points against an average defense). Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Liberty puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 9 and Liberty by 36 about 80% of the time.
Liberty gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Liberty by about 11.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida International / Liberty) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | +440 / -625 |
| FanDuel | Liberty -13.5 | 45.5 | +470 / -670 |
| BetMGM | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | +450 / -600 |
| DraftKings | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | +440 / -600 |
| theScore Bet | Liberty -13.5 | 44.5 | +425 / -650 |
| Pinnacle | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | +427 / -589 |
| Bovada | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | +425 / -600 |
| BetRivers | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | +440 / -670 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Liberty -13.5 | 44.5 | +450 / -650 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Liberty win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Liberty -13.5 | 40.6 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Liberty -14 | 45.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Liberty -14 | 46.4 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Liberty win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Liberty -13.5 · market Liberty -14 · difference -0.5 pts (Liberty view)
- Total
- model 40.6 · market 45.5 · difference -4.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Liberty 84%.
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Florida International than the market.
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Florida International vs Liberty: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida International | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1#122 | 31.6#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3#21 | 14.0#7 |
| Yards per play | 5.42#115 | 6.62#29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93#21 | 5.03#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.4#115 | 233.1#11 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.3#50 | 182.3#114 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.0#40 | 129.9#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.4#15 | 176.4#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#111 | 0.14#3 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#61 | 1.29#26 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#73 | 2.00#77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#21 | 1.86#76 |
| Stat | Florida International | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#124 | +0.16#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#27 | -0.09#13 |
| Success rate | 39.5%#115 | 47.5%#27 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.1%#33 | 35.6%#19 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#88 | 15.2%#21 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#77 | 11.9%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#44 | 15.6%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#61 | 11.9%#37 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.95#132 | 4.15#63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.93#6 | 3.04#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#52 | own 34#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#123 | own 25#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.1#35 | 62.7#102 |
| Stat | Florida International | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#126 | +0.18#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | +0.14#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#40 | -0.05#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#33 | -0.13#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#124 | 52.5%#4 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#68 | 40.5%#84 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#102 | 13.4%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2%#57 | 32.4%#53 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1%#27 | 26.6%#33 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#23 | 42.7%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.1%#3 | 33.3%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.0%#137 | 58.7%#88 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 27.8%#1 | 33.6%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida International schedule · Liberty schedule · all Week 9 projections
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