Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 35.5, Liberty 20.7 at Bridgeforth Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: James Madison wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.8 points and 56.1 combined points.
Liberty has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. James Madison has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) should limit Liberty's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) against Liberty's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Liberty by 8 and James Madison by 37 about 80% of the time.
James Madison gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour James Madison by about 12.7. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Liberty 13, James Madison 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.8 points and the total by 23.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Liberty / James Madison) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -6 | 50.5 | +197.5 / -237.5 |
| Bovada | James Madison -6 | 50.5 | +210 / -250 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -6 | 50.5 | +185 / -225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | James Madison win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -15 | 56.1 | 83% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -6 | 50.5 | 68% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -7.5 | 51.6 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- James Madison win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference +16 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -14.8 · market James Madison -6 · difference +8.8 pts (James Madison view)
- Total
- model 56.1 · market 50.5 · difference +5.6
Model margin is 8.8 pts more toward James Madison than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Liberty 20.7, James Madison 35.5 | James Madison 83%right winner | 7.8 | 23.1 |
| New formula | Liberty 19.3, James Madison 34.8 | James Madison 82%right winner | 8.5 | 21.2 |
Final: Liberty 13, James Madison 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Liberty vs James Madison: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Liberty | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.6#83 | 37.1#9 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5#77 | 18.4#13 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#69 | 6.41#29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#77 | 4.82#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.8#24 | 243.1#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 185.4#106 | 203.4#93 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.7#100 | 98.2#3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 194.8#36 | 186.6#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#128 | 1.07#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#73 | 1.21#52 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#115 | 2.43#28 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#77 | 1.64#51 |
| Stat | Liberty | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#59 | +0.08#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#113 | -0.16#7 |
| Success rate | 44.4%#47 | 45.2%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#81 | 31.0%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#28 | 13.0%#52 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#115 | 10.0%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#114 | 16.7%#4 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#82 | 12.6%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61#108 | 4.17#43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.35#116 | 3.49#30 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#46 | own 33#12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#121 | own 29#55 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#65 | 69.7#30 |
| Stat | Liberty | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#25 | +0.10#28 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#102 | +0.05#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#117 | -0.10#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#95 | -0.21#6 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#39 | 47.6%#25 |
| Passing success rate | 39.3%#93 | 40.7%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#25 | 18.7%#78 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#49 | 31.5%#56 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7%#106 | 23.9%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9%#57 | 47.4%#21 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.7%#121 | 30.4%#5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.1%#79 | 66.0%#41 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.3%#109 | 53.8%#27 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Liberty schedule · James Madison schedule · all Week 1 projections
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