2026 schedule

James Madison Dukes

7-1SOS #128

2026 season so far

James Madison is 7-1 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+23.1 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings James Madison ranks 37th of 139 FBS teams overall — 32nd on offense and 53rd on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Troy in Week 9. We project James Madison 36, Troy 18 — James Madison wins 89% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Liberty Flames
0-1 · SOS #134
Win 20-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 14.8
Total 56.2
DraftKings
JMU -6
Total 50.5
Final James Madison by 7. James Madison beat the spread. 33 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -6 · O/U 50.5 · ML +197.5 / -237.5 · James Madison 68% no-vig · model vs market +8.8 pts, +16 pct pts (James Madison view)
ESPNU Bridgeforth Stadium
vs
Wagner Seahawks
1-2 · SOS #64
Win 87-3
Week 2
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 44.7
Total 46.3
DraftKings
JMU -46.5
Total 56.5
Final James Madison by 84. James Madison beat the spread. 90 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -46.5 (open James Madison -45.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 54.75) · model vs market -1.8 pts (James Madison view)
ESPN+ Bridgeforth Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
San Diego State Aztecs
1-2 · SOS #69
Win 26-13
Week 3
Our number· pregame
San Diego State by 0.6
Total 55.2
DraftKings
SDSU -3
Total 46.5
Final James Madison by 13. James Madison beat the spread. 39 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego State -3 (open San Diego State -2) · O/U 46.5 · ML +114.5 / -135 · San Diego State 55% no-vig · model vs market -2.4 pts, -4 pct pts (San Diego State view)
CW Snapdragon Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
at
Old Dominion Monarchs
1-3 · SOS #79
Win 46-20
Week 4
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 4.2
Total 50.2
DraftKings
JMU -7
Total 44.5
Final James Madison by 26. James Madison beat the spread. 66 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -7 (open James Madison -4.75) · O/U 44.25 (open 49) · ML -237.5 / +195 · Old Dominion 33% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Old Dominion view)
Game-time weather: 63°F, Wind 18 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KNGU)
ESPN+ S.B. Ballard Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
N. Herman RB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 65) · 72% · 18 ✓Q. Henicle QB · Low rush yds 60 (avg 75) · 70% · did not playG. Pettaway RB · TD threat 67% · 0 ✗
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd
3-2 · SOS #106
Win 45-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 19
Total 59.6
DraftKings
JMU -14.5
Total 55.5
Final James Madison by 28. James Madison beat the spread. 62 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -16.25 (open James Madison -15.5) · O/U 55.75 (open 55) · ML +587.5 / -925 · James Madison 86% no-vig · model vs market +2.7 pts, +3 pct pts (James Madison view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 56°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVBW)
ESPNU Bridgeforth Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · C. Del Rio-Wilson QB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 49) · 75% · 15 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Barbie RB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 41) · 75% · 44 ✗G. Pettaway RB · TD threat 66% · 2 ✓
at
Georgia Southern Eagles
2-4 · SOS #81
Win 27-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 10.1
Total 55.7
DraftKings
JMU -7
Total 51.5
Final James Madison by 3. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -7 (open James Madison -8.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 54) · ML -330 / +260 · Georgia Southern 27% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind 8 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTBR)
ESPNU Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
G. Pettaway RB · Low rush yds 82 (avg 99) · 69% · 151 ✗J. Dallas WR · Low catches 4.6 (avg 5.8) · 66% · 8 ✗C. Coleman QB · High pass yds 221 (avg 196) · 56% · 171 ✗
vs
Georgia State Panthers
4-2 · SOS #126
Win 49-22
Week 7
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 13
Total 59.2
DraftKings
JMU -7.5
Total 57.5
Final James Madison by 27. James Madison beat the spread. 71 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -7.75 (open James Madison -12.25) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.25) · ML +320 / -427.5 · James Madison 77% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +3 pct pts (James Madison view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 10 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVBW)
ESPNU Bridgeforth Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
L. McCrary Jr. RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 72) · 69% · 24 ✓C. Coleman QB · High pass yds 222 (avg 192) · 59% · 185 ✗
at
App State Mountaineers
5-2 · SOS #124
Loss 31-34
Week 8
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 13.9
Total 56.7
DraftKings
JMU -12.5
Total 56.5
Final App State by 3. App State beat the spread. 65 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -12.5 (open James Madison -10.75) · O/U 56.5 · ML -460 / +347.5 · App State 21% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -3 pct pts (App State view)
Game-time weather: 55°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTNB)
ESPNU Kidd Brewer Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 18 of 25 since week 3 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 1 of 4
Steamed red-zone fav over2026 combo · Held up Over: Spread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 28 hits, 7 misses (80% hit rate) over 35 graded gamesSpread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: hit (n=35; wk 5–7 12-1) · Spread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: hit (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · M. Singleton QB · Low rush yds 8 (avg 2) · 75% · -1 ✓Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · H. Hasselbeck QB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 38) · 75% · 9 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Lewis RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 58) · 75% · 74 ✗
vs
Troy Trojans
3-4 · SOS #113
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 36-18 · 89%
Our number
James Madison by 18
Total 54
DraftKings
JMU -21
Total 49.5
We're 3 points higher on Troy than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -20.75 · O/U 49.5 · ML +900 / -1800 · James Madison 90% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -2 pct pts (James Madison view)
Kickoff forecast: Clear, 63°F, Wind 1 mph S, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Bridgeforth Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded games (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded games (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · G. Crowder QB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 38) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · G. Griffin RB · Low rush yds 46 (avg 57) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Lovett RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 53) · 75%
at
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
2-5 · SOS #93
Fri, Nov 6, 1:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 38-21 · 87%
Our number
James Madison by 17
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 M. M. Roberts Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Robinson RB · Low rush yds 73 (avg 82) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Wilder RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 53) · 75%G. Pettaway RB · TD threat 75%
at
UConn Huskies
4-3 · SOS #132
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 34-25 · 73%
Our number
James Madison by 9
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Pratt & Whitney Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
C. Coleman QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 196) · 53%
vs
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
2-5 · SOS #115
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 39-17 · 92%
Our number
James Madison by 22
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bridgeforth Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · D. Bailey QB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 33) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Lee-Knicely RB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 65) · 75%G. Pettaway RB · TD threat 72%

Times shown in your local time

James Madison Dukes stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+6.6

37th in FBS

Adj. offense

31.4

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

24.8

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	41.4	5 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	18.3	25 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.72	22 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.03	27 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	213.3	23 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	243.8	48 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	123.5	25 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	228.8	102 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.25	7 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.13	41 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.75	17 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.00	20 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.18	28 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.01	39 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	45.2%	45 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	37.6%	31 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.9%	36 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.2%	26 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.3%	36 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	9.4%	6 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.59	32 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.21	21 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 35	2 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 27	27 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	68.0	47 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.13	36 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.23	26 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.03	39 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.00	47 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	45.3%	57 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	44.7%	48 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	14.2%	21 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	37.9%	17 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	28.5%	54 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	38.8%	91 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	39.4%	79 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	76.9%	7 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	47.7%	26 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.