Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San Diego State 27.9, James Madison 27.3 at Snapdragon Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: San Diego State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
James Madison is 2-0, scoring 53.5 and allowing 8 points per game (+45.5 per game). San Diego State is 1-1, scoring 31.5 and allowing 24 points per game (+7.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: James Madison's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.5 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd). San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San Diego State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 22 and San Diego State by 23 about 80% of the time.
San Diego State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field James Madison would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on CW.
Result: James Madison 26, San Diego State 13. James Madison won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (James Madison / San Diego State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego State -2 → San Diego State -3 | 46.5 | +114.5 / -135 |
| DraftKings | San Diego State -1.5 → San Diego State -3 | 46.5 | +114 / -135 |
| Bovada | San Diego State -2.5 → San Diego State -3 | 46.5 | +115 / -135 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San Diego State -0.5 | 55.2 | 52% |
| Market consensus | San Diego State -3 | 46.5 | 55% |
| Blended projection | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.1 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego State win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model San Diego State -0.6 · market San Diego State -3 · difference -2.4 pts (San Diego State view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 46.5 · difference +8.7
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward James Madison than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | James Madison 27.3, San Diego State 27.9 | San Diego State 52%wrong winner | 13.6 | 16.2 |
| New formula | James Madison 26.4, San Diego State 28.3 | San Diego State 55%wrong winner | 14.9 | 15.7 |
Final: James Madison 26, San Diego State 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
James Madison vs San Diego State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | James Madison | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 53.5#9 | 31.5#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 8.0#12 | 24.0#85 |
| Yards per play | 8.17#12 | 4.80#124 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.95#15 | 5.04#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 242.0#24 | 188.5#63 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.5#91 | 92.5#133 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 100.0#32 | 164.0#102 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 158.5#37 | 204.0#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#25 | 1.00#88 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#109 | 1.00#67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#93 | 1.50#86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#29 | 1.50#71 |
| Stat | James Madison | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#53 | -0.02#113 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#88 | +0.03#71 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#80 | 37.9%#110 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9%#64 | 42.3%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#94 | 9.3%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#98 | 8.7%#16 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#118 | 10.6%#122 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#57 | 14.4%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.16#72 | 4.68#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54#56 | 3.61#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#21 | own 33#44 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#81 | own 35#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.5#127 | 58.5#109 |
| Stat | James Madison | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#40 | +0.05#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#71 | -0.14#123 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#65 | +0.06#93 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#97 | -0.01#56 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2%#24 | 41.0%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 35.5%#116 | 28.6%#134 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#83 | 22.2%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.5%#36 | 30.4%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.2%#99 | 31.6%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.9%#28 | 34.8%#104 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.1%#70 | 40.0%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.3%#75 | 64.5%#69 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.4%#29 | 50.8%#51 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: James Madison schedule · San Diego State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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