Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 35.3, App State 21.4 at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: James Madison wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.9 points and 56.6 combined points.
James Madison is 7-0, scoring 42.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+26.9 per game). App State is 4-2, scoring 29.5 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+7.7 per game).
James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over App State's below-average defense (104th); that mismatch is where most of James Madison's projected points come from. Expect App State to find it hard going: James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) outranks App State's below-average offense (99th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 36 and App State by 9 about 80% of the time.
App State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. James Madison is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: James Madison 31, App State 34. App State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (James Madison / App State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -10.75 → James Madison -12.5 | 56.5 | -460 / +347.5 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -10.5 → James Madison -12.5 | 56.5 | -470 / +360 |
| Bovada | James Madison -11 → James Madison -12.5 | 56.5 | -450 / +335 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | App State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -14 | 56.6 | 18% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -12.5 | 56.5 | 21% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -13 | 56.8 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- App State win probability
- model 18% · market (no-vig) 21% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -13.9 · market James Madison -12.5 · difference -1.4 pts (App State view)
- Total
- model 56.6 · market 56.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward James Madison than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | James Madison 35.3, App State 21.4 | James Madison 82%wrong winner | 16.9 | 8.4 |
| New formula | James Madison 35.3, App State 21.2 | James Madison 82%wrong winner | 17.0 | 8.5 |
Final: James Madison 31, App State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
James Madison vs App State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | James Madison | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.9#3 | 29.5#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#20 | 21.8#56 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#19 | 6.22#59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.09#33 | 5.19#40 |
| Rushing yards per game | 231.1#14 | 163.0#78 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.3#60 | 260.2#38 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.4#34 | 146.3#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 225.1#97 | 206.8#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.14#4 | 0.67#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#29 | 1.67#9 |
| Sacks per game | 2.71#20 | 1.50#105 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#31 | 1.33#44 |
| Stat | James Madison | App State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#22 | +0.09#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#42 | +0.04#68 |
| Success rate | 46.3%#41 | 42.0%#83 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#33 | 43.9%#100 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.1%#37 | 14.8%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#36 | 11.1%#55 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#49 | 14.9%#46 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7%#14 | 12.7%#54 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.62#34 | 3.99#81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.06#13 | 3.84#72 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#3 | own 32#25 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#33 | own 26#29 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#56 | 68.0#47 |
| Stat | James Madison | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#26 | 0.00#110 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#27 | +0.18#42 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#47 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#48 | -0.02#40 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.0%#40 | 39.5%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#46 | 44.0%#55 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.6%#35 | 18.0%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.0%#21 | 34.1%#39 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1%#65 | 27.6%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#57 | 38.5%#93 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4%#81 | 38.4%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.3%#10 | 80.4%#5 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.2%#45 | 61.7%#84 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: James Madison schedule · App State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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