Matchup analysis
Our model projects James Madison 39, Coastal Carolina 17 at Bridgeforth Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: James Madison wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.2 points and 56.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Coastal Carolina is 2-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.1 and allowing 25.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). James Madison is 7-1 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+23.1 per game).
Expect Coastal Carolina to find it hard going: James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) outranks Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (113th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th); that mismatch is where most of James Madison's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 1 and James Madison by 44 about 80% of the time.
James Madison gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour James Madison by about 19.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Coastal Carolina vs James Madison: stat comparison
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1#89 | 41.4#5 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9#90 | 18.3#25 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#75 | 6.72#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46#121 | 5.03#27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.4#69 | 213.3#23 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.9#83 | 243.8#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.9#130 | 123.5#25 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.6#71 | 228.8#102 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#112 | 0.25#7 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#62 | 1.13#41 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#64 | 2.75#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#121 | 1.00#20 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#108 | +0.18#28 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#111 | -0.01#39 |
| Success rate | 39.4%#116 | 45.2%#45 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#121 | 37.6%#31 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#64 | 13.9%#36 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#116 | 10.2%#26 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#73 | 15.3%#36 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#114 | 9.4%#6 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#95 | 4.59#32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47#39 | 3.21#21 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#91 | own 35#2 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#77 | own 27#27 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#87 | 68.0#47 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | +0.13#36 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#111 | +0.23#26 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#115 | -0.03#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#97 | +0.00#47 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9%#84 | 45.3%#57 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1%#114 | 44.7%#48 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.3%#56 | 14.2%#21 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#73 | 37.9%#17 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#71 | 28.5%#54 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2%#98 | 38.8%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.6%#126 | 39.4%#79 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#66 | 76.9%#7 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#51 | 47.7%#26 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Coastal Carolina schedule · James Madison schedule · all Week 13 projections
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