Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 39.3, Marshall 20.3 at Bridgeforth Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: James Madison wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Marshall is 3-1, scoring 23.5 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-9 per game). James Madison is 4-0, scoring 44.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+32.5 per game).
James Madison's strong defense (40th) should limit Marshall's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.3 points against an average defense) against Marshall's struggling defense (127th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marshall by 4 and James Madison by 42 about 80% of the time.
James Madison gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour James Madison by about 16.9. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Marshall 17, James Madison 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9 points and the total by 2.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marshall / James Madison) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -15.5 → James Madison -16.25 | 55 → 55.75 | +587.5 / -925 |
| DraftKings | James Madison -13.5 → James Madison -14.5 | 55.5 | +525 / -750 |
| Bovada | James Madison -17.5 → James Madison -18 | 54.5 → 56 | +650 / -1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | James Madison win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -19 | 59.5 | 89% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -16.5 | 55.8 | 86% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -17 | 56.3 | 87% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- James Madison win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 86% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model James Madison -19 · market James Madison -16.25 · difference +2.8 pts (James Madison view)
- Total
- model 59.5 · market 55.75 · difference +3.8
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward James Madison than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Marshall 20.3, James Madison 39.3 | James Madison 89%right winner | 9.0 | 2.5 |
| New formula | Marshall 19.9, James Madison 39.8 | James Madison 90%right winner | 8.1 | 2.3 |
Final: Marshall 17, James Madison 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Marshall vs James Madison: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Marshall | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5#101 | 44.8#7 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.5#125 | 12.3#13 |
| Yards per play | 6.15#75 | 6.57#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.14#134 | 4.35#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.0#102 | 207.5#36 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.3#59 | 221.0#78 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.0#85 | 112.3#27 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 315.8#137 | 187.0#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#75 | 0.25#22 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#103 | 1.00#64 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#127 | 3.50#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#69 | 1.25#52 |
| Stat | Marshall | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#56 | +0.13#57 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#126 | -0.02#44 |
| Success rate | 42.9%#76 | 46.2%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.6%#128 | 34.8%#17 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#63 | 12.7%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#102 | 10.5%#51 |
| Havoc rate | 9.5%#133 | 15.1%#55 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#73 | 11.0%#30 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.81#99 | 4.67#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13#90 | 3.03#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#105 | own 37#7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#71 | own 28#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5#91 | 65.3#71 |
| Stat | Marshall | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#73 | +0.14#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#45 | +0.12#63 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#42 | -0.04#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.37#134 | -0.01#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#89 | 46.8%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1%#72 | 42.3%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#100 | 16.5%#68 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0%#122 | 35.3%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9%#78 | 26.0%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.9%#127 | 40.8%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5%#116 | 35.3%#53 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#107 | 73.2%#27 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#69 | 47.8%#32 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marshall schedule · James Madison schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.