Matchup analysis
Our model projects James Madison 38, Southern Miss 21 at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: James Madison wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.3 points and 58.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
James Madison is 7-1 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+23.1 per game). Southern Miss is 2-5 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-6.7 per game).
James Madison's strong offense (32nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Southern Miss's struggling defense (127th); that mismatch is where most of James Madison's projected points come from. Expect Southern Miss to find it hard going: James Madison's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) outranks Southern Miss's below-average offense (107th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 40 and Southern Miss by 5 about 80% of the time.
Southern Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. James Madison is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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James Madison vs Southern Miss: stat comparison
| Stat | James Madison | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.4#5 | 25.7#92 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3#25 | 32.4#125 |
| Yards per play | 6.72#22 | 6.04#63 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.03#27 | 5.97#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.3#23 | 169.3#65 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.8#48 | 251.6#42 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 123.5#25 | 243.9#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.8#102 | 206.7#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#7 | 1.57#133 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#41 | 0.86#73 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#17 | 2.57#29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#20 | 1.86#72 |
| Stat | James Madison | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#28 | +0.04#95 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#39 | +0.05#73 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#45 | 41.4%#92 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#31 | 43.0%#92 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#36 | 13.5%#52 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#26 | 13.1%#101 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#36 | 12.1%#114 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4%#6 | 12.4%#48 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#32 | 3.73#98 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21#21 | 3.92#83 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#2 | own 27#118 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#27 | own 29#84 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#47 | 69.7#27 |
| Stat | James Madison | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#36 | +0.16#27 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#26 | -0.06#123 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#39 | +0.04#72 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#47 | +0.07#79 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.3%#57 | 47.6%#34 |
| Passing success rate | 44.7%#48 | 36.6%#117 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#21 | 11.1%#3 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.9%#17 | 22.9%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5%#54 | 30.9%#89 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8%#91 | 31.5%#131 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4%#79 | 40.9%#93 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.9%#7 | 61.4%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.7%#26 | 57.2%#56 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: James Madison schedule · Southern Miss schedule · all Week 10 projections
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