Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected James Madison 45.5, Wagner 0.8 at Bridgeforth Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: James Madison wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 44.6 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Wagner is 1-1, scoring 19 and allowing 17.5 points per game (+1.5 per game). James Madison is 1-0, scoring 20 and allowing 13 points per game (+7 per game).
Wagner plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why James Madison's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between James Madison by 22 and James Madison by 67 about 80% of the time.
James Madison gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour James Madison by about 42.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Wagner 3, James Madison 87. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 39.4 points and the total by 43.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wagner / James Madison) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | James Madison -45.5 → James Madison -46.5 | 54.75 → 56.75 | — / — |
| Bovada | James Madison -45.5 → James Madison -46.5 | 55 → 57 | — / — |
| DraftKings | James Madison -45.5 → James Madison -46.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | James Madison win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | James Madison -44.5 | 46.3 | 100% |
| Market consensus | James Madison -46.5 | 56.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | James Madison -46.5 | 56.4 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- James Madison win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model James Madison -44.6 · market James Madison -46.5 · difference -1.9 pts (James Madison view)
- Total
- model 46.3 · market 56.75 · difference -10.5
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Wagner than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wagner 0.8, James Madison 45.5 | James Madison 100%right winner | 39.4 | 43.7 |
| New formula | Wagner 3.4, James Madison 42.6 | James Madison 99%right winner | 44.8 | 44.0 |
Final: Wagner 3, James Madison 87. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wagner vs James Madison: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wagner | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.4 | 37.1#9 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5 | 18.4#13 |
| Yards per play | 4.36 | 6.41#29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 4.82#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.1 | 243.1#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 95.1 | 203.4#93 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.2 | 98.2#3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.8 | 186.6#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.07#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.21#52 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.43#28 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 1.64#51 |
| Stat | Wagner | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.08#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.16#7 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 45.2%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 31.0%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.1% | 13.0%#52 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 10.0%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 16.7%#4 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 12.6%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 4.17#43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.27 | 3.49#30 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 33#12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | own 29#55 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 69.7#30 |
| Stat | Wagner | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.10#28 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.32 | +0.05#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.10#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.21#6 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0% | 47.6%#25 |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 40.7%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 18.7%#78 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9% | 31.5%#56 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 23.9%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7% | 47.4%#21 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 30.4%#5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 66.0%#41 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7% | 53.8%#27 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wagner schedule · James Madison schedule · all Week 2 projections
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