2026 schedule

Wagner Seahawks

1-7SOS #64

2026 season so far

Wagner is 1-7 against the 64th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 13.1 and allowing 38.8 points per game (-25.7 per game).

Wagner plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.

Next up: at Merrimack in Week 9. We project Wagner 16, Merrimack 31 — Wagner wins 15% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Robert Morris Colonials
1-0 · SOS #143
Loss 7-28
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Wagner by 4.4
Total 45.2
DraftKings
WAG -5.5
Total 40.5
Final Robert Morris by 21. Robert Morris beat the spread. 35 points — under the 40.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wagner -5.5 · O/U 40.5 (open 39.5) · ML +176 / -223 · Wagner 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, -4 pct pts (Wagner view)
ESPN+ Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
vs
Southern Connecticut State Owls
0-1 · SOS #175
Win 31-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Wagner by 2.6
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Wagner by 24. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
at
James Madison Dukes
2-0 · SOS #128
Loss 3-87
Week 2
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 44.7
Total 46.3
DraftKings
JMU -46.5
Total 56.5
Final James Madison by 84. James Madison beat the spread. 90 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -46.5 (open James Madison -45.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 54.75) · model vs market -1.8 pts (James Madison view)
ESPN+ Bridgeforth Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
California Golden Bears
2-1 · SOS #48
Loss 7-49
Week 3
Our number· pregame
California by 40.6
Total 55.4
DraftKings
CAL -58.5
Total 65.5
Final California by 42. Wagner beat the spread. 56 points — under the 65.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: California -58 · O/U 65.25 · model vs market -17.4 pts (California view)
ACC Network California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
1-3 · SOS #82
Loss 14-45
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Central Connecticut by 18.4
Total 57.8
DraftKings
CCSU -14
Total 46.5
Final Central Connecticut by 31. Central Connecticut beat the spread. 59 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Central Connecticut -14 (open Central Connecticut -14.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 45.5) · ML +426 / -630 · Central Connecticut 82% no-vig · model vs market +4.4 pts, +7 pct pts (Central Connecticut view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHFD)
Arute Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
Princeton Tigers
3-1 · SOS #128
Loss 13-28
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Princeton by 17
Total 46
DraftKings
PRIN -25.5
Total 43.5
Final Princeton by 15. Wagner beat the spread. 41 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Princeton -25.5 (open Princeton -22.5) · O/U 43.5 · ML -5500 / +1300 · Wagner 7% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +7 pct pts (Wagner view)
Game-time weather: 72°F, Wind 5 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEWR)
Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Long Island University Sharks
3-5 · SOS #59
Loss 9-14
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Long Island University by 5.7
Total 45.3
DraftKings
LIU -6.5
Total 39.5
Final Long Island University by 5. Wagner beat the spread. 23 points — under the 39.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Long Island University -6.5 (open Long Island University -7) · O/U 39.5 (open 41.5) · ML -259 / +201 · Wagner 32% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +4 pct pts (Wagner view)
Game-time weather: 50°F, Wind 7 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEWR)
Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
at
Duquesne Dukes
3-4 · SOS #91
Loss 21-52
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Duquesne by 18.9
Total 49.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Duquesne by 31. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 5 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAGC)
Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
at
Merrimack Warriors
3-5 · SOS #66
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-31 · 15%
Our number
Merrimack by 15
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 52°F, Wind 8 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDT
ESPN+ Duane Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
at
Mercyhurst Lakers
1-7 · SOS #39
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 23-31 · 29%
Our number
Mercyhurst by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saxon Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
vs
New Haven Chargers
2-6 · SOS #74
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 22-29 · 31%
Our number
New Haven by 7
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
at
Stonehill Skyhawks
3-5 · SOS #114
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 16-29 · 20%
Our number
Stonehill by 13
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
W.B. Mason Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

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Wagner Seahawks stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-41.0

Adj. offense

5.3

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

46.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	13.1	—
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	38.8	—
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	4.43	—
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.78	—
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	92.5	—
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	190.6	—
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	187.0	—
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	229.8	—
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.88	—
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.00	—
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.13	—
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.75	—

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.10	—
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.10	—
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	33.6%	—
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.2%	—
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	6.6%	—
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	15.5%	—
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.6%	—
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	16.3%	—
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	2.98	—
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.15	—
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	opp 20	—
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	opp 15	—
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	63.9	—

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.13	—
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.07	—
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.16	—
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.02	—
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	27.2%	—
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	37.1%	—
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	23.9%	—
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	25.4%	—
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	35.8%	—
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	27.1%	—
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	42.9%	—
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	50.8%	—
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	59.2%	—

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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