Matchup analysis
Our model projects Mercyhurst 31, Wagner 23 at Saxon Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Mercyhurst wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 54.3 combined points.
Wagner is 1-7 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 13.1 and allowing 38.8 points per game (-25.7 per game). Mercyhurst is 1-7 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.6 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-21.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wagner by 14 and Mercyhurst by 31 about 80% of the time.
Mercyhurst gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mercyhurst by about 6.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Wagner vs Mercyhurst: stat comparison
| Stat | Wagner | Mercyhurst |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.1 | 20.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.8 | 41.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.43 | 5.43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.78 | 6.59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 92.5 | 98.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.6 | 233.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.0 | 217.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.8 | 241.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 2.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.25 |
| Stat | Wagner | Mercyhurst |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 33.6% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2% | 45.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 6.6% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.5% | 14.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 11.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.98 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15 | 4.31 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.9 | 61.1 |
| Stat | Wagner | Mercyhurst |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 27.2% | 34.8% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 36.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.9% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 31.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.8% | 36.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 27.1% | 39.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.8% | 64.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.2% | 67.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wagner schedule · Mercyhurst schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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