2026 schedule
Mercyhurst Lakers
2026 season so far
Mercyhurst is 1-7 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.6 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-21.2 per game).
Mercyhurst plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Stonehill in Week 9. We project Mercyhurst 21, Stonehill 28 — Mercyhurst wins 33% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Youngstown State Penguins
1-0 · SOS #24
Loss 10-43
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 12.7
Total 59.3
DraftKings
YSU -30.5
Total 57.5
Final Youngstown State by 33. Youngstown State beat the spread. 53 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -30.5 · O/U 57.5 · model vs market -17.8 pts (Youngstown State view)
ESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
New Mexico State Aggies
1-1 · SOS #114
Loss 14-51
Week 1
Our number· pregame
New Mexico State by 27.6
Total 47.8
DraftKings
NMSU -29.5
Total 52.5
Final New Mexico State by 37. New Mexico State beat the spread. 65 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico State -29 (open New Mexico State -26.5) · O/U 52.25 (open 51.25) · ML +2200 / -8000 · New Mexico State 96% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (New Mexico State view)
ESPN+ Aggie Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - at
New Mexico Lobos
2-0 · SOS #129
Loss 7-70
Week 2
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 40.9
Total 47.7
DraftKings
UNM -42.5
Total 54.5
Final New Mexico by 63. New Mexico beat the spread. 77 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico -42.25 (open New Mexico -41) · O/U 54.5 (open 52) · model vs market -1.4 pts (New Mexico view)
MW+ University Stadium (NM)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
Glenville State Pioneers
1-2 · SOS #147
Win 49-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Mercyhurst by 2.7
Total 55.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Mercyhurst by 29. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Saxon StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - at
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
1-3 · SOS #89
Loss 7-52
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 23.4
Total 59
DraftKings
WKU -39.5
Total 58.5
Final Western Kentucky by 45. Western Kentucky beat the spread. 59 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Kentucky -40 (open Western Kentucky -39.5) · O/U 58.75 (open 57) · model vs market -16.6 pts (Western Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)ESPN+ Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - at
Long Island University Sharks
1-5 · SOS #59
Loss 24-27
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Long Island University by 4.5
Total 51.7
DraftKings
LIU -8.5
Total 47.5
Final Long Island University by 3. Mercyhurst beat the spread. 51 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Long Island University -8.5 (open Long Island University -9.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 42.5) · ML +249 / -329 · Long Island University 73% no-vig · model vs market -4.0 pts, -11 pct pts (Long Island University view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 9 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFRG)ESPN+ Shark StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
3-3 · SOS #82
Loss 40-43
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Central Connecticut by 11.4
Total 61.8
DraftKings
CCSU -8.5
Total 54.5
Final Central Connecticut by 3. Mercyhurst beat the spread. 83 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Central Connecticut -8.5 (open Central Connecticut -7) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · ML -330 / +250 · Mercyhurst 27% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -4 pct pts (Mercyhurst view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 46°F, Wind 9 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KERI)Saxon StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
Robert Morris Colonials
4-4 · SOS #143
Loss 14-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Robert Morris by 4.6
Total 53.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Robert Morris by 14. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPIT)ESPN+ Joe Walton StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Stonehill Skyhawks
3-5 · SOS #114
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 21-28 · 33%
Our number
Stonehill by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 53°F, Wind 8 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTW.B. Mason StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Wagner Seahawks
1-7 · SOS #64
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-23 · 71%
Our number
Mercyhurst by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saxon StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Duquesne Dukes
3-4 · SOS #91
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 21-36 · 18%
Our number
Duquesne by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arthur J. Rooney Athletic FieldLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
New Haven Chargers
2-6 · SOS #74
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 27-28 · 47%
Our number
New Haven by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saxon StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Mercyhurst Lakers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-33.4
Adj. offense
11.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
44.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 20.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 41.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.43 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.59 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 98.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 233.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 217.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 241.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 2.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.25 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.15 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.3% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 17.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.66 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.31 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 31 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 23 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.21 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 34.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 36.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 22.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 36.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.3% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 50.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 64.5% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 67.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.