Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Long Island University 28.1, Mercyhurst 23.6 at Shark Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Long Island University wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Mercyhurst is 1-4, scoring 17.4 and allowing 47.2 points per game (-29.8 per game). Long Island University is 0-5, scoring 11.8 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-21.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mercyhurst by 18 and Long Island University by 27 about 80% of the time.
Long Island University gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Long Island University by about 2.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mercyhurst 24, Long Island University 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercyhurst / Long Island University) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Long Island University -9.5 → Long Island University -8.5 | 42.5 → 47.5 | +249 / -329 |
| DraftKings | Long Island University -9.5 → Long Island University -8.5 | 42.5 → 47.5 | +249 / -329 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Long Island University win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Long Island University -4.5 | 51.6 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Long Island University -8.5 | 47.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Long Island University -8 | 48.7 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Long Island University win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Long Island University -4.5 · market Long Island University -8.5 · difference -4.0 pts (Long Island University view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 47.5 · difference +4.1
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Mercyhurst than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercyhurst 23.6, Long Island University 28.1 | Long Island University 62%right winner | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| New formula | Mercyhurst 23.7, Long Island University 27.8 | Long Island University 61%right winner | 1.1 | 0.5 |
Final: Mercyhurst 24, Long Island University 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercyhurst vs Long Island University: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.28 | 5.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.13 | 4.60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.9 | 196.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 156.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1 | 140.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.0 | 159.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.09 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 39.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 10.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.27 | 2.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.50 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1 | 66.3 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 39.4% | 37.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 27.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 26.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 40.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.1% | 41.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 54.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercyhurst schedule · Long Island University schedule · all Week 5 projections
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