Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico State 37.7, Mercyhurst 10.1 at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: New Mexico State wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.5 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Mercyhurst is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 43 points per game (-33 per game). New Mexico State is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 34 points per game (-17 per game).
Mercyhurst plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why New Mexico State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 5 and New Mexico State by 50 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Mexico State by about 25.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mercyhurst 14, New Mexico State 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.5 points and the total by 17.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercyhurst / New Mexico State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico State -26.5 → New Mexico State -29 | 51.25 → 52.25 | +2200 / -8000 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico State -24.5 → New Mexico State -29.5 | 50.5 → 52.5 | +2200 / -8000 |
| Bovada | New Mexico State -28.5 | 52 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico State -27.5 | 47.8 | 96% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico State -29 | 52.3 | 96% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico State -29 | 52.6 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico State win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico State -27.5 · market New Mexico State -29 · difference -1.5 pts (New Mexico State view)
- Total
- model 47.8 · market 52.25 · difference -4.5
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Mercyhurst than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercyhurst 10.1, New Mexico State 37.7 | New Mexico State 96%right winner | 9.5 | 17.2 |
| New formula | Mercyhurst 14.6, New Mexico State 36.5 | New Mexico State 91%right winner | 15.1 | 13.9 |
Final: Mercyhurst 14, New Mexico State 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mercyhurst | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 21.6#112 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 27.6#88 |
| Yards per play | 5.28 | 5.16#122 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.13 | 5.80#67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.9 | 105.4#135 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 262.8#27 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1 | 181.8#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.0 | 241.6#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.25#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 1.42#27 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 1.42#110 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.09 | 2.75#121 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.05#114 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.04#41 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 37.8%#119 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 42.7%#82 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 10.9%#118 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 11.3%#42 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 11.8%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2% | 15.4%#125 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.27 | 3.38#122 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.80#62 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#90 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#103 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1 | 71.4#16 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.09#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.03#97 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.10#16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.03#78 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 33.5%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 39.4% | 40.0%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 22.4%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 28.2%#90 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 28.6%#54 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 43.7%#40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 42.0%#87 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.1% | 50.8%#120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 58.7%#57 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercyhurst schedule · New Mexico State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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