Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Connecticut 36.6, Mercyhurst 25.2 at Saxon Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Central Connecticut wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.4 points and 61.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Central Connecticut is 2-3, scoring 31.2 and allowing 37 points per game (-5.8 per game). Mercyhurst is 1-5, scoring 18.5 and allowing 43.8 points per game (-25.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Connecticut by 34 and Mercyhurst by 11 about 80% of the time.
Mercyhurst gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Central Connecticut is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Central Connecticut 43, Mercyhurst 40. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.4 points and the total by 21.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Connecticut / Mercyhurst) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Central Connecticut -7 → Central Connecticut -8.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | -330 / +250 |
| DraftKings | Central Connecticut -7 → Central Connecticut -8.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | -330 / +250 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mercyhurst win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Central Connecticut -11.5 | 61.7 | 23% |
| Market consensus | Central Connecticut -8.5 | 54.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Central Connecticut -9 | 55.4 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mercyhurst win probability
- model 23% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Central Connecticut -11.4 · market Central Connecticut -8.5 · difference -2.9 pts (Mercyhurst view)
- Total
- model 61.7 · market 54.5 · difference +7.2
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Central Connecticut than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Connecticut 36.6, Mercyhurst 25.2 | Central Connecticut 77%right winner | 8.4 | 21.3 |
| New formula | Central Connecticut 35.8, Mercyhurst 24.8 | Central Connecticut 77%right winner | 8.0 | 22.4 |
Final: Central Connecticut 43, Mercyhurst 40. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Connecticut vs Mercyhurst: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Mercyhurst |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.7 | 18.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.9 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.64 | 5.28 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 6.13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.3 | 119.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.6 | 202.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.3 | 197.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.2 | 172.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.62 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85 | 0.64 |
| Sacks per game | 2.15 | 0.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.23 | 2.09 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Mercyhurst |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 41.1% | 40.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 11.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 16.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 2.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.20 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7 | 61.1 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Mercyhurst |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.5% | 40.2% |
| Passing success rate | 45.7% | 39.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.5% | 28.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7% | 32.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7% | 39.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.2% | 36.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.9% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Connecticut schedule · Mercyhurst schedule · all Week 7 projections
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