Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Kentucky 41.2, Mercyhurst 17.8 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Western Kentucky wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.4 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Mercyhurst is 1-3, scoring 20 and allowing 46 points per game (-26 per game). Western Kentucky is 0-3, scoring 11.3 and allowing 52.3 points per game (-41 per game).
Mercyhurst plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Western Kentucky's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 1 and Western Kentucky by 46 about 80% of the time.
Western Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Kentucky by about 21.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mercyhurst 7, Western Kentucky 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.6 points and the total by 0.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercyhurst / Western Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Kentucky -39.5 → Western Kentucky -40 | 57 → 58.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Western Kentucky -38.5 → Western Kentucky -39.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Western Kentucky -40.5 | 57.5 → 59 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Kentucky -23.5 | 58.9 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Western Kentucky -40 | 58.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Western Kentucky -37.5 | 58.9 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Kentucky win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Western Kentucky -23.4 · market Western Kentucky -40 · difference -16.6 pts (Western Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 58.9 · market 58.75 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 16.6 pts more toward Mercyhurst than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercyhurst 17.8, Western Kentucky 41.2 | Western Kentucky 94%right winner | 21.6 | 0.1 |
| New formula | Mercyhurst 17.0, Western Kentucky 41.5 | Western Kentucky 95%right winner | 20.6 | 0.5 |
Final: Mercyhurst 7, Western Kentucky 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercyhurst vs Western Kentucky: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 11.3#136 |
| Points allowed per game | 46.0 | 52.3#138 |
| Yards per play | 4.85 | 4.00#138 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.81 | 8.23#138 |
| Rushing yards per game | 90.8 | 131.3#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 171.3 | 151.0#123 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 235.0 | 259.3#137 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 273.8 | 234.3#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.75 | 1.67#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.33#130 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 0.67#132 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 2.00#102 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.25#138 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.33#138 |
| Success rate | 31.9% | 33.3%#134 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 53.8%#138 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7% | 6.3%#137 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.0% | 19.7%#138 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4% | 6.8%#138 |
| Havoc allowed | 25.7% | 16.7%#128 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.40 | 3.50#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.69 | 5.75#136 |
| Average starting field position | opp 43 | own 29#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 29 | own 34#127 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.0 | 70.7#29 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.26#137 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.29 | -0.23#133 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.40 | +0.20#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.48#135 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.7% | 33.8%#130 |
| Passing success rate | 32.1% | 32.9%#128 |
| Run stuff rate | 29.3% | 24.2%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2% | 26.8%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.1% | 43.5%#135 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4% | 41.2%#79 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.2% | 46.7%#118 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 33.3% | 71.4%#37 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.4% | 92.3%#134 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercyhurst schedule · Western Kentucky schedule · all Week 4 projections
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