Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Youngstown State 36, Mercyhurst 23.3 at Stambaugh Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Youngstown State wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.7 points and 59.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Mercyhurst has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Youngstown State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mercyhurst by 10 and Youngstown State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Youngstown State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Youngstown State by about 10.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mercyhurst 10, Youngstown State 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.3 points and the total by 6.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercyhurst / Youngstown State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Youngstown State -30.5 | 57.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Youngstown State -30.5 | 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Youngstown State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Youngstown State -12.5 | 59.2 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Youngstown State -30.5 | 57.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Youngstown State -27.5 | 57.8 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Youngstown State win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Youngstown State -12.7 · market Youngstown State -30.5 · difference -17.8 pts (Youngstown State view)
- Total
- model 59.2 · market 57.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 17.8 pts more toward Mercyhurst than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercyhurst 23.3, Youngstown State 36.0 | Youngstown State 80%right winner | 20.3 | 6.2 |
| New formula | Mercyhurst 20.0, Youngstown State 40.2 | Youngstown State 88%right winner | 12.7 | 7.2 |
Final: Mercyhurst 10, Youngstown State 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercyhurst vs Youngstown State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 36.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.28 | 6.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.13 | 6.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.9 | 193.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1 | 160.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.0 | 261.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 1.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.09 | 1.25 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 48.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2% | 9.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.27 | 2.80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 49.5% |
| Passing success rate | 39.4% | 49.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 37.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 35.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.1% | 43.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 46.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercyhurst schedule · Youngstown State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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