2026 schedule
Youngstown State Penguins
2026 season so far
Youngstown State is 6-2 against the 24th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.1 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+16 per game).
Youngstown State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs North Dakota in Week 9. We project Youngstown State 33, North Dakota 30 — Youngstown State wins 59% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Mercyhurst Lakers
0-1 · SOS #39
Win 43-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 12.7
Total 59.3
DraftKings
YSU -30.5
Total 57.5
Final Youngstown State by 33. Youngstown State beat the spread. 53 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -30.5 · O/U 57.5 · model vs market -17.8 pts (Youngstown State view)
ESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Kentucky Wildcats
1-0 · SOS #4
Loss 13-45
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Kentucky by 26.9
Total 60.9
DraftKings
UK -22.5
Total 61.5
Final Kentucky by 32. Kentucky beat the spread. 58 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kentucky -22.25 (open Kentucky -23.25) · O/U 62 (open 62.5) · ML +950 / -1900 · Kentucky 91% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Kentucky view)
SECN+ Kroger FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - vs
Duquesne Dukes
0-2 · SOS #91
Win 70-13
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 9.3
Total 58.3
DraftKings
YSU -22.5
Total 54.5
Final Youngstown State by 57. Youngstown State beat the spread. 83 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -22.5 · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · ML +980 / -2500 · Youngstown State 91% no-vig · model vs market -13.2 pts, -18 pct pts (Youngstown State view)
ESPN+ Stambaugh Stadium - at
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3-1 · SOS #52
Loss 20-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 4.7
Total 64.3
DraftKings
SDST -9.5
Total 59.5
Final South Dakota State by 7. Youngstown State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -9.5 (open South Dakota State -10) · O/U 59.5 · ML +271 / -361 · South Dakota State 74% no-vig · model vs market -4.8 pts, -12 pct pts (South Dakota State view)
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
South Dakota Coyotes
3-2 · SOS #35
Win 47-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
South Dakota by 1.6
Total 66
DraftKings
YSU -1.5
Total 65.5
Final Youngstown State by 19. Youngstown State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 65.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -1.5 · O/U 65.5 (open 63.5) · ML -125 / +101 · Youngstown State 47% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Youngstown State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 70°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYNG)ESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
Southern Illinois Salukis
3-3 · SOS #30
Win 28-16
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 2.4
Total 65.6
DraftKings
YSU -4
Total 64.5
Final Youngstown State by 12. Youngstown State beat the spread. 44 points — under the 64.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -4 (open Youngstown State -3.5) · O/U 64.5 (open 62.5) · ML -185 / +148 · Southern Illinois 38% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Southern Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 5 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMDH)ESPN+ Saluki StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Indiana State Sycamores
2-5 · SOS #19
Win 57-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 16.3
Total 64.5
DraftKings
YSU -19.5
Total 64.5
Final Youngstown State by 33. Youngstown State beat the spread. 81 points — over the 64.5. The book was closer. Both totals were equally close.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -19.5 · O/U 64.5 · ML -1620 / +800 · Indiana State 11% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +4 pct pts (Indiana State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: missed · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - vs
Northern Iowa Panthers
3-3 · SOS #4
Win 35-22
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 16.5
Total 60.3
DraftKings
YSU -20.5
Total 60.5
Final Youngstown State by 13. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 57 points — under the 60.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -20.5 (open Youngstown State -18.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 59.5) · ML +810 / -1640 · Youngstown State 90% no-vig · model vs market -4.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Youngstown State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 43°F, Wind 3 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYNG)ESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - vs
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6-3 · SOS #43
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 33-30 · 59%
Our number
Youngstown State by 3
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 56°F, Wind 2 mph E, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Murray State Racers
1-7 · SOS #15
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 47-17 · 97%
Our number
Youngstown State by 30
Total 64
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Roy Stewart StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Illinois State Redbirds
6-2 · SOS #89
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 32-27 · 61%
Our number
Youngstown State by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Youngstown State Penguins stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-5.1
Adj. offense
27.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 39.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 23.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.16 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.88 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 198.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 269.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 144.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 214.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.50 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.31 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 52.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 15.9% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.4% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 9.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.21 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.12 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.3 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.27 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.34 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.13 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 53.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 57.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 42.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.2% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 57.6% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 63.3% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 59.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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