Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota 33.8, Youngstown State 32.2 at Stambaugh Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: South Dakota wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 66 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
South Dakota is 3-1, scoring 40.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+14.5 per game). Youngstown State is 2-2, scoring 36.5 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+12.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota by 24 and Youngstown State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Youngstown State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Dakota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Dakota 28, Youngstown State 47. Youngstown State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 20.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Dakota / Youngstown State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Youngstown State -1.5 | 63.5 → 65.5 | -125 / +101 |
| DraftKings | Youngstown State -1.5 | 63.5 → 65.5 | -125 / +101 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Youngstown State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota -1.5 | 66.0 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Youngstown State -1.5 | 65.5 | 47% |
| Blended projection | Youngstown State -1 | 65.1 | 53% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Youngstown State win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 47% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model South Dakota -1.6 · market Youngstown State -1.5 · difference -3.1 pts (Youngstown State view)
- Total
- model 66.0 · market 65.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward South Dakota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota 33.8, Youngstown State 32.2 | South Dakota 54%wrong winner | 20.6 | 9.0 |
| New formula | South Dakota 32.8, Youngstown State 31.3 | South Dakota 54%wrong winner | 20.5 | 10.9 |
Final: South Dakota 28, Youngstown State 47. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Dakota vs Youngstown State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Dakota | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.1 | 36.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.65 | 6.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.00 | 6.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.0 | 193.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.5 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.6 | 160.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.7 | 261.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 0.93 | 1.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 46.0% | 48.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 9.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.95 | 2.80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.57 | 3.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1 | 66.5 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22 | +0.25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 49.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1% | 37.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 35.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 17.9% | 43.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 25.9% | 46.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota schedule · Youngstown State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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