2026 schedule
South Dakota Coyotes
2026 season so far
South Dakota is 7-2 against the 35th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.7 and allowing 24.2 points per game (+13.5 per game).
South Dakota plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at South Dakota State in Week 9. We project South Dakota 23, South Dakota State 30 — South Dakota wins 32% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
0-1 · SOS #82
Win 59-20
Week 1
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 12
Total 62
DraftKings
SDAK -20.5
Total 49.5
Final South Dakota by 39. South Dakota beat the spread. 79 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -20.5 (open South Dakota -22.5) · O/U 49.5 (open 53.5) · ML +1180 / -3900 · South Dakota 93% no-vig · model vs market -8.5 pts, -14 pct pts (South Dakota view)
ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
Northern Colorado Bears
0-2 · SOS #62
Win 38-23
Week 1
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 18
Total 50
DraftKings
SDAK -20.5
Total 56.5
Final South Dakota by 15. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 61 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: South Dakota -20.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML -2100 / +920 · Northern Colorado 9% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +3 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - vs
Eastern Washington Eagles
1-2 · SOS #11
Win 41-23
Week 2
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 20
Total 62
DraftKings
SDAK -15.5
Total 61.5
Final South Dakota by 18. South Dakota beat the spread. 64 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -15.5 (open South Dakota -16.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 58.5) · ML +482 / -740 · South Dakota 84% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +7 pct pts (South Dakota view)
ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
Boise State Broncos
2-1 · SOS #45
Loss 24-38
Week 3
Our number· model now
Boise State by 25
Total 57
DraftKings
BOIS -28.5
Total 61.5
Final Boise State by 14. South Dakota beat the spread. 62 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -28.25 (open Boise State -24) · O/U 61 (open 55.75) · ML +1250 / -3000 · Boise State 93% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Boise State view)
CBSSN Albertsons Stadium - at
Youngstown State Penguins
3-2 · SOS #24
Loss 28-47
Week 4
Our number· model now
Youngstown State by 5
Total 63
DraftKings
YSU -1.5
Total 65.5
Final Youngstown State by 19. Youngstown State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 65.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -1.5 · O/U 65.5 (open 63.5) · ML -125 / +101 · Youngstown State 47% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +15 pct pts (Youngstown State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 70°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYNG)ESPN+ Stambaugh Stadium - vs
Indiana State Sycamores
2-4 · SOS #19
Win 44-14
Week 5
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 19
Total 57
DraftKings
SDAK -16.5
Total 60.5
Final South Dakota by 30. South Dakota beat the spread. 58 points — under the 60.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -16.5 (open South Dakota -18.5) · O/U 60.5 · ML +586 / -960 · South Dakota 86% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +3 pct pts (South Dakota view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ The DakotaDome - vs
Southern Illinois Salukis
3-4 · SOS #30
Win 31-10
Week 6
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 11
Total 55
DraftKings
SDAK -10.5
Total 57.5
Final South Dakota by 21. South Dakota beat the spread. 41 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -10.5 · O/U 57.5 (open 58.5) · ML +262 / -348 · South Dakota 74% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +3 pct pts (South Dakota view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
Murray State Racers
1-6 · SOS #15
Win 48-20
Week 7
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 27
Total 59
DraftKings
SDAK -28.5
Total 60.5
Final South Dakota by 28. Murray State beat the spread. 68 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -28.5 · O/U 60.5 (open 61.5) · model vs market +1.5 pts (Murray State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 6 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPAH)ESPN+ Roy Stewart Stadium - vs
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6-3 · SOS #43
Win 26-23
Week 8
Our number· model now
South Dakota by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final South Dakota by 3. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6-2 · SOS #52
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 23-30 · 32%
Our number
South Dakota State by 7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 58°F, Wind 10 mph SSE, 7% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPNU Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - vs
Northern Iowa Panthers
3-4 · SOS #4
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 33-20 · 81%
Our number
South Dakota by 13
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
Illinois State Redbirds
6-2 · SOS #89
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 26-28 · 44%
Our number
Illinois State by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hancock Stadium
Times shown in your local time
South Dakota Coyotes stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-7.7
Adj. offense
23.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 37.7 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 24.2 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.87 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.43 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 201.7 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 217.2 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 176.4 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 189.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.89 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.78 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.56 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.14 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.9% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.4% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.08 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.41 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.23 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 48.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 24.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.4% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 62.9% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 70.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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