Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Dakota 33, Northern Iowa 20 at The DakotaDome in Week 11. That is a solid edge: South Dakota wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.7 points and 52.8 combined points.
Northern Iowa is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 28 points per game (-3.6 per game). South Dakota is 7-2 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.7 and allowing 24.2 points per game (+13.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Iowa by 9 and South Dakota by 36 about 80% of the time.
South Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Dakota by about 11.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northern Iowa vs South Dakota: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Iowa | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4 | 37.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 24.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.16 | 6.87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.99 | 5.43 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.6 | 201.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.9 | 217.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.7 | 176.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.1 | 189.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71 | 0.89 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 0.78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 1.56 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 45.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3% | 39.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.96 | 4.08 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.04 | 3.41 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7 | 61.0 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.7% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 39.1% | 48.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8% | 31.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 24.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.2% | 38.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 14.8% | 62.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 29.4% | 70.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Iowa schedule · South Dakota schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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