2026 schedule
Northern Iowa Panthers
2026 season so far
Northern Iowa is 3-4 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 28 points per game (-3.6 per game).
Northern Iowa plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Indiana State in Week 9. We project Northern Iowa 30, Indiana State 23 — Northern Iowa wins 69% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Eastern Washington Eagles
1-1 · SOS #11
Loss 24-34
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Eastern Washington by 5
Total 49.2
DraftKings
EWU -7
Total 52.5
Final Eastern Washington by 10. Eastern Washington beat the spread. 58 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Washington -7 (open Eastern Washington -6.5) · O/U 52.5 · ML +216 / -280 · Eastern Washington 70% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -7 pct pts (Eastern Washington view)
ESPN+ Roos FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Drake Bulldogs
0-3 · SOS #112
Win 56-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Northern Iowa by 5.5
Total 46.9
DraftKings
UNI -11.5
Total 59.5
Final Northern Iowa by 42. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 70 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Iowa -11.5 (open Northern Iowa -10.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 54.5) · ML +368 / -521 · Northern Iowa 80% no-vig · model vs market -6.0 pts, -16 pct pts (Northern Iowa view)
ESPN+ UNI-DomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: missed · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - at
#18 Iowa Hawkeyes
3-0 · SOS #39
Loss 0-55
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 41.1
Total 48.9
DraftKings
IOWA -37.5
Total 48.5
Final Iowa by 55. Iowa beat the spread. 55 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Iowa -37.5 (open Iowa -40.5) · O/U 48.75 (open 49.25) · model vs market +3.6 pts (Iowa view)
FS1 Kinnick StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5 - vs
Illinois State Redbirds
4-1 · SOS #89
Win 28-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 14
Total 56.8
DraftKings
ILST -19.5
Total 58.5
Final Northern Iowa by 7. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 49 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois State -19.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML -1040 / +610 · Northern Iowa 13% no-vig · model vs market +5.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Northern Iowa view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ UNI-DomePregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed - vs
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
5-2 · SOS #43
Win 24-17
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 8.7
Total 59.1
DraftKings
UND -13.5
Total 58.5
Final Northern Iowa by 7. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 41 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -13.5 (open North Dakota -11.5) · O/U 58.5 · ML -468 / +337 · Northern Iowa 22% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Northern Iowa view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ UNI-DomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Youngstown State Penguins
6-2 · SOS #24
Loss 22-35
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 16.5
Total 60.3
DraftKings
YSU -20.5
Total 60.5
Final Youngstown State by 13. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 57 points — under the 60.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -20.5 (open Youngstown State -18.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 59.5) · ML +810 / -1640 · Youngstown State 90% no-vig · model vs market -4.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Youngstown State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 43°F, Wind 3 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYNG)ESPN+ Stambaugh StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
Southern Illinois Salukis
4-5 · SOS #30
Loss 17-20
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Southern Illinois by 4.7
Total 50.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Southern Illinois by 3. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 5 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMDH)ESPN+ Saluki StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Indiana State Sycamores
2-6 · SOS #19
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-23 · 69%
Our number
Northern Iowa by 7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ UNI-DomeLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6-2 · SOS #52
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 16-32 · 16%
Our number
South Dakota State by 16
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ UNI-Dome - at
South Dakota Coyotes
7-2 · SOS #35
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 20-33 · 19%
Our number
South Dakota by 13
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
Murray State Racers
1-7 · SOS #15
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 34-19 · 84%
Our number
Northern Iowa by 15
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Roy Stewart StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Northern Iowa Panthers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-20.3
Adj. offense
15.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.16 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.99 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 123.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 199.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 195.7 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 220.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.14 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.57 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 3.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.08 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 47.3% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.96 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.04 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 14 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 12 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.7 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.12 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.18 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.00 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.7% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.7% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 36.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 48.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 14.8% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 29.4% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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