Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois State 35.4, Northern Iowa 21.4 at UNI-Dome in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Illinois State wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14 points and 56.8 combined points.
Illinois State is 4-0, scoring 48.5 and allowing 11.8 points per game (+36.7 per game). Northern Iowa is 1-2, scoring 26.7 and allowing 34.3 points per game (-7.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 37 and Northern Iowa by 9 about 80% of the time.
Northern Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Illinois State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Illinois State 21, Northern Iowa 28. Northern Iowa won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois State / Northern Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois State -19.5 | 58.5 | -1040 / +610 |
| DraftKings | Illinois State -19.5 | 58.5 | -1040 / +610 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois State -14 | 56.8 | 18% |
| Market consensus | Illinois State -19.5 | 58.5 | 13% |
| Blended projection | Illinois State -18.5 | 58.5 | 10% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Iowa win probability
- model 18% · market (no-vig) 13% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois State -14 · market Illinois State -19.5 · difference +5.5 pts (Northern Iowa view)
- Total
- model 56.8 · market 58.5 · difference -1.7
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward Northern Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Illinois State 35.4, Northern Iowa 21.4 | Illinois State 82%wrong winner | 21.0 | 7.8 |
| New formula | Illinois State 35.9, Northern Iowa 20.6 | Illinois State 84%wrong winner | 22.3 | 7.5 |
Final: Illinois State 21, Northern Iowa 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Illinois State vs Northern Iowa: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Illinois State | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8 | 17.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 6.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.5 | 140.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.5 | 186.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4 | 196.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.4 | 204.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.35 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.06 | 2.42 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 45.7% | 39.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% | 45.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.27 | 1.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.54 | 1.83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.1 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 40.7% |
| Passing success rate | 45.8% | 38.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8% | 16.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2% | 25.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2% | 31.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 39.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 19.3% | 25.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23.9% | 33.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois State schedule · Northern Iowa schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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